Trader consensus on Polymarket positions the Parti Québécois (PQ) as the frontrunner to claim the most seats in Quebec's October 5, 2026 general election, with 59% implied probability, driven by seat projections favoring PQ's vote efficiency in the first-past-the-post system. Despite recent popular vote polls showing the Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) slightly ahead—such as Pallas Data's May 9 survey (PQ 28.5%, PLQ 28.3%, CAQ 18.9%)—aggregators like 338Canada project PQ at 62 seats (51-71 range) versus PLQ's 42 (36-52), thanks to PQ's strength in francophone ridings outside Montreal. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) languishes at 11.5% odds post its April leadership shift to Christine Fréchette amid François Legault's dismal approval ratings, while minor parties like PCQ, PVQ, and QS trail far behind. Tightening polls underscore a competitive race as the campaign intensifies.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGeneralny zwycięzca wyborów w Quebecu
Generalny zwycięzca wyborów w Quebecu
PQ 59%
PLQ 29%
CAQ 12%
PCQ <1%
$502,555 Wol.
$502,555 Wol.
Oct 5, 2026
PQ
59%
PLQ
29%
CAQ
12%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 59%
PLQ 29%
CAQ 12%
PCQ <1%
$502,555 Wol.
$502,555 Wol.
Oct 5, 2026
PQ
$51,761 Wol.
59%
PLQ
$55,890 Wol.
29%
CAQ
$58,465 Wol.
12%
PCQ
$163,325 Wol.
<1%
PVQ
$114,822 Wol.
<1%
QS
$58,291 Wol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket positions the Parti Québécois (PQ) as the frontrunner to claim the most seats in Quebec's October 5, 2026 general election, with 59% implied probability, driven by seat projections favoring PQ's vote efficiency in the first-past-the-post system. Despite recent popular vote polls showing the Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) slightly ahead—such as Pallas Data's May 9 survey (PQ 28.5%, PLQ 28.3%, CAQ 18.9%)—aggregators like 338Canada project PQ at 62 seats (51-71 range) versus PLQ's 42 (36-52), thanks to PQ's strength in francophone ridings outside Montreal. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) languishes at 11.5% odds post its April leadership shift to Christine Fréchette amid François Legault's dismal approval ratings, while minor parties like PCQ, PVQ, and QS trail far behind. Tightening polls underscore a competitive race as the campaign intensifies.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Rynek otwarty: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$502,555Data zakończenia
Oct 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket positions the Parti Québécois (PQ) as the frontrunner to claim the most seats in Quebec's October 5, 2026 general election, with 59% implied probability, driven by seat projections favoring PQ's vote efficiency in the first-past-the-post system. Despite recent popular vote polls showing the Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) slightly ahead—such as Pallas Data's May 9 survey (PQ 28.5%, PLQ 28.3%, CAQ 18.9%)—aggregators like 338Canada project PQ at 62 seats (51-71 range) versus PLQ's 42 (36-52), thanks to PQ's strength in francophone ridings outside Montreal. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) languishes at 11.5% odds post its April leadership shift to Christine Fréchette amid François Legault's dismal approval ratings, while minor parties like PCQ, PVQ, and QS trail far behind. Tightening polls underscore a competitive race as the campaign intensifies.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Wolumen
$502,555Data zakończenia
Oct 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions the Parti Québécois (PQ) as the frontrunner to claim the most seats in Quebec's October 5, 2026 general election, with 59% implied probability, driven by seat projections favoring PQ's vote efficiency in the first-past-the-post system. Despite recent popular vote polls showing the Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) slightly ahead—such as Pallas Data's May 9 survey (PQ 28.5%, PLQ 28.3%, CAQ 18.9%)—aggregators like 338Canada project PQ at 62 seats (51-71 range) versus PLQ's 42 (36-52), thanks to PQ's strength in francophone ridings outside Montreal. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) languishes at 11.5% odds post its April leadership shift to Christine Fréchette amid François Legault's dismal approval ratings, while minor parties like PCQ, PVQ, and QS trail far behind. Tightening polls underscore a competitive race as the campaign intensifies.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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