Recent polling in the lead-up to Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows a fragmented field with Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered within a few points, creating uncertainty over final rankings. Late July and August surveys from INSA and Civey indicate Linke and CDU trading narrow leads around 19-22 percent while AfD holds steady near 17-19 percent, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition and gains for opposition parties. The announced withdrawal of Governing Mayor Kai Wegner has introduced additional variables for CDU positioning without clear consolidation elsewhere. These tight vote shares sustain elevated trader probabilities for AfD and Grüne finishing third, as small shifts in turnout or preference flows among left-leaning or protest voters could reorder the middle of the pack ahead of election day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAfD 33%
Grüne 29%
CDU 24%
Linke 12%
$22,608 Wol.
$22,608 Wol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
33%
Grüne
29%
CDU
24%
Linke
12%
SPD
9%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
AfD 33%
Grüne 29%
CDU 24%
Linke 12%
$22,608 Wol.
$22,608 Wol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
$5,435 Wol.
33%
Grüne
$3,681 Wol.
29%
CDU
$5,639 Wol.
24%
Linke
$4,578 Wol.
12%
SPD
$1,268 Wol.
9%
FDP
$674 Wol.
<1%
FW
$582 Wol.
<1%
BSW
$750 Wol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling in the lead-up to Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows a fragmented field with Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered within a few points, creating uncertainty over final rankings. Late July and August surveys from INSA and Civey indicate Linke and CDU trading narrow leads around 19-22 percent while AfD holds steady near 17-19 percent, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition and gains for opposition parties. The announced withdrawal of Governing Mayor Kai Wegner has introduced additional variables for CDU positioning without clear consolidation elsewhere. These tight vote shares sustain elevated trader probabilities for AfD and Grüne finishing third, as small shifts in turnout or preference flows among left-leaning or protest voters could reorder the middle of the pack ahead of election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Rynek otwarty: Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
Wolumen
$22,608Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling in the lead-up to Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows a fragmented field with Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered within a few points, creating uncertainty over final rankings. Late July and August surveys from INSA and Civey indicate Linke and CDU trading narrow leads around 19-22 percent while AfD holds steady near 17-19 percent, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition and gains for opposition parties. The announced withdrawal of Governing Mayor Kai Wegner has introduced additional variables for CDU positioning without clear consolidation elsewhere. These tight vote shares sustain elevated trader probabilities for AfD and Grüne finishing third, as small shifts in turnout or preference flows among left-leaning or protest voters could reorder the middle of the pack ahead of election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Wolumen
$22,608Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in the lead-up to Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows a fragmented field with Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered within a few points, creating uncertainty over final rankings. Late July and August surveys from INSA and Civey indicate Linke and CDU trading narrow leads around 19-22 percent while AfD holds steady near 17-19 percent, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition and gains for opposition parties. The announced withdrawal of Governing Mayor Kai Wegner has introduced additional variables for CDU positioning without clear consolidation elsewhere. These tight vote shares sustain elevated trader probabilities for AfD and Grüne finishing third, as small shifts in turnout or preference flows among left-leaning or protest voters could reorder the middle of the pack ahead of election day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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