Trader consensus heavily favors Partido Liberal (PL) at 76% implied probability to win the most seats in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, where 27 seats (one-third of the 81-member chamber) will be renewed via state-level majoritarian contests. Recent Veritá and Real Time Big Data polls from late April to mid-May 2026 show PL candidates leading or placing strongly in key states like Santa Catarina (Carlos Bolsonaro and Caroline de Toni launched), Goiás (Gustavo Gayer at 17%), and Paraná (Filipe Barros competitive), bolstering its edge over Progressistas (PP) and União Brasil. PL's robust candidate slate and right-wing momentum amid a tight presidential race sustain this positioning, though shifts remain possible before candidate registration deadlines and amid coalition dynamics.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPL 77%
PP 7.5%
UNIÃO 3.6%
PSDB 2.1%
$14,081 Wol.
$14,081 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
PL
79%
PP
8%
UNIÃO
4%
PSDB
2%
PSB
2%
PDT
1%
REPUBLICANOS
1%
PSD
1%
NOVO
1%
MDB
1%
PT
1%
PODEMOS
<1%
PL 77%
PP 7.5%
UNIÃO 3.6%
PSDB 2.1%
$14,081 Wol.
$14,081 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
PL
$3,033 Wol.
79%
PP
$588 Wol.
8%
UNIÃO
$606 Wol.
4%
PSDB
$779 Wol.
2%
PSB
$606 Wol.
2%
PDT
$4,076 Wol.
1%
REPUBLICANOS
$618 Wol.
1%
PSD
$842 Wol.
1%
NOVO
$581 Wol.
1%
MDB
$696 Wol.
1%
PT
$839 Wol.
1%
PODEMOS
$819 Wol.
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).Trader consensus heavily favors Partido Liberal (PL) at 76% implied probability to win the most seats in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, where 27 seats (one-third of the 81-member chamber) will be renewed via state-level majoritarian contests. Recent Veritá and Real Time Big Data polls from late April to mid-May 2026 show PL candidates leading or placing strongly in key states like Santa Catarina (Carlos Bolsonaro and Caroline de Toni launched), Goiás (Gustavo Gayer at 17%), and Paraná (Filipe Barros competitive), bolstering its edge over Progressistas (PP) and União Brasil. PL's robust candidate slate and right-wing momentum amid a tight presidential race sustain this positioning, though shifts remain possible before candidate registration deadlines and amid coalition dynamics.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
Rynek otwarty: Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$14,081Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).Trader consensus heavily favors Partido Liberal (PL) at 76% implied probability to win the most seats in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, where 27 seats (one-third of the 81-member chamber) will be renewed via state-level majoritarian contests. Recent Veritá and Real Time Big Data polls from late April to mid-May 2026 show PL candidates leading or placing strongly in key states like Santa Catarina (Carlos Bolsonaro and Caroline de Toni launched), Goiás (Gustavo Gayer at 17%), and Paraná (Filipe Barros competitive), bolstering its edge over Progressistas (PP) and União Brasil. PL's robust candidate slate and right-wing momentum amid a tight presidential race sustain this positioning, though shifts remain possible before candidate registration deadlines and amid coalition dynamics.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
Wolumen
$14,081Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Partido Liberal (PL) at 76% implied probability to win the most seats in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, where 27 seats (one-third of the 81-member chamber) will be renewed via state-level majoritarian contests. Recent Veritá and Real Time Big Data polls from late April to mid-May 2026 show PL candidates leading or placing strongly in key states like Santa Catarina (Carlos Bolsonaro and Caroline de Toni launched), Goiás (Gustavo Gayer at 17%), and Paraná (Filipe Barros competitive), bolstering its edge over Progressistas (PP) and União Brasil. PL's robust candidate slate and right-wing momentum amid a tight presidential race sustain this positioning, though shifts remain possible before candidate registration deadlines and amid coalition dynamics.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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