Recent polls from late September and early October place incumbent Iliana Iotova ahead of Andrey Gyurov by roughly 20 points among decided voters, yet 20 percent remain undecided and projected turnout sits near 35-40 percent. With 27 candidate pairs on the October 25 ballot, vote fragmentation and last-minute shifts among undecided or low-propensity voters create scope for the winner’s first-round share to land outside the 20-30 percent band or for a narrower gap than current surveys indicate. Trader pricing, which assigns nearly equal weight to “Other” and an Iotova 20-30 percent margin, reflects this uncertainty over mobilization, turnout, and any final-week developments that could compress or widen the lead before first-round results are certified.