Mike Derry, the United Conservative Party nominee, holds the strongest position in the Calgary-Shaw by-election scheduled for September 14, 2026, following the resignation of former MLA Rebecca Schulz. Traders assign him the highest implied probability due to the riding’s consistent support for conservative candidates in southern Calgary and his June nomination victory over city councillor Dan McLean. Alberta NDP candidate Kyle Campbell and Liberal leader John Roggeveen trail, reflecting limited opposition momentum in a district with established UCP organizational advantages. Minor-party entrants, including Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph, register negligible shares amid low visibility and the short campaign window. Recent party announcements and the approaching vote date have reinforced expectations of a straightforward UCP outcome without major late shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMike Derry 77%
Kyle Campbell 15%
John Roggeveen 7.4%
Kyle Joseph <1%
Mike Derry
77%
Kyle Campbell
15%
John Roggeveen
7%
Kyle Joseph
<1%
Mike Derry 77%
Kyle Campbell 15%
John Roggeveen 7.4%
Kyle Joseph <1%
Mike Derry
77%
Kyle Campbell
15%
John Roggeveen
7%
Kyle Joseph
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mike Derry, the United Conservative Party nominee, holds the strongest position in the Calgary-Shaw by-election scheduled for September 14, 2026, following the resignation of former MLA Rebecca Schulz. Traders assign him the highest implied probability due to the riding’s consistent support for conservative candidates in southern Calgary and his June nomination victory over city councillor Dan McLean. Alberta NDP candidate Kyle Campbell and Liberal leader John Roggeveen trail, reflecting limited opposition momentum in a district with established UCP organizational advantages. Minor-party entrants, including Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph, register negligible shares amid low visibility and the short campaign window. Recent party announcements and the approaching vote date have reinforced expectations of a straightforward UCP outcome without major late shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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