Recent upward revisions to Canada's 2026 inflation outlook, driven by elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict, underpin trader positioning around the 2.5–2.9% range as the highest-implied probability outcome. The Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report raised its full-year CPI forecast to 2.3% from 2.0% previously, citing gasoline and oil effects that pushed March headline inflation to 2.4% year-over-year. Core measures remain anchored near target, supporting the view that the spike will prove transitory, yet ongoing geopolitical risks and potential tariff impacts introduce upside variance that sustains meaningful probabilities for 3.0–3.4% and 3.5–3.9% buckets. With the policy rate held at 2.25% and markets pricing limited further easing, these implied odds reflect consensus that energy-driven pressures will lift the annual average modestly above the central bank's base case while keeping outcomes below 3% more likely than not.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCanada Annual Inflation 2026
Canada Annual Inflation 2026
2.5–2.9% 46.9%
3.5-3.9% 40.4%
2.0–2.4% 20.0%
1.0–1.4% 5.3%
$16,408 Wol.
$16,408 Wol.
Jan 18, 2027
<1.0%
1%
1.0–1.4%
5%
1.5–1.9%
33%
2.0–2.4%
20%
2.5–2.9%
61%
3.0-3.4%
39%
3.5-3.9%
40%
4.0%+
39%
2.5–2.9% 46.9%
3.5-3.9% 40.4%
2.0–2.4% 20.0%
1.0–1.4% 5.3%
$16,408 Wol.
$16,408 Wol.
Jan 18, 2027
<1.0%
$318 Wol.
1%
1.0–1.4%
$355 Wol.
5%
1.5–1.9%
$656 Wol.
33%
2.0–2.4%
$468 Wol.
20%
2.5–2.9%
$502 Wol.
61%
3.0-3.4%
$13,465 Wol.
39%
3.5-3.9%
$287 Wol.
40%
4.0%+
$357 Wol.
39%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Recent upward revisions to Canada's 2026 inflation outlook, driven by elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict, underpin trader positioning around the 2.5–2.9% range as the highest-implied probability outcome. The Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report raised its full-year CPI forecast to 2.3% from 2.0% previously, citing gasoline and oil effects that pushed March headline inflation to 2.4% year-over-year. Core measures remain anchored near target, supporting the view that the spike will prove transitory, yet ongoing geopolitical risks and potential tariff impacts introduce upside variance that sustains meaningful probabilities for 3.0–3.4% and 3.5–3.9% buckets. With the policy rate held at 2.25% and markets pricing limited further easing, these implied odds reflect consensus that energy-driven pressures will lift the annual average modestly above the central bank's base case while keeping outcomes below 3% more likely than not.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Rynek otwarty: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$16,408Data zakończenia
Jan 18, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Recent upward revisions to Canada's 2026 inflation outlook, driven by elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict, underpin trader positioning around the 2.5–2.9% range as the highest-implied probability outcome. The Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report raised its full-year CPI forecast to 2.3% from 2.0% previously, citing gasoline and oil effects that pushed March headline inflation to 2.4% year-over-year. Core measures remain anchored near target, supporting the view that the spike will prove transitory, yet ongoing geopolitical risks and potential tariff impacts introduce upside variance that sustains meaningful probabilities for 3.0–3.4% and 3.5–3.9% buckets. With the policy rate held at 2.25% and markets pricing limited further easing, these implied odds reflect consensus that energy-driven pressures will lift the annual average modestly above the central bank's base case while keeping outcomes below 3% more likely than not.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Wolumen
$16,408Data zakończenia
Jan 18, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent upward revisions to Canada's 2026 inflation outlook, driven by elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict, underpin trader positioning around the 2.5–2.9% range as the highest-implied probability outcome. The Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report raised its full-year CPI forecast to 2.3% from 2.0% previously, citing gasoline and oil effects that pushed March headline inflation to 2.4% year-over-year. Core measures remain anchored near target, supporting the view that the spike will prove transitory, yet ongoing geopolitical risks and potential tariff impacts introduce upside variance that sustains meaningful probabilities for 3.0–3.4% and 3.5–3.9% buckets. With the policy rate held at 2.25% and markets pricing limited further easing, these implied odds reflect consensus that energy-driven pressures will lift the annual average modestly above the central bank's base case while keeping outcomes below 3% more likely than not.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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