Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85% implied probability that former Rep. Eric Swalwell will not face criminal charges by May 31, driven by the absence of formal indictments despite ongoing Department of Justice and Manhattan DA probes into multiple sexual assault allegations that emerged in early April 2026. Swalwell resigned from Congress and dropped his California gubernatorial bid amid claims from at least five women spanning years, which he has denied as politically timed falsehoods; local prosecutors in Los Angeles are also reviewing related accusations. No procedural updates, such as grand jury actions or arraignments, have surfaced in the past 30 days, underscoring typical investigative timelines that exceed the two-week window to resolution and historical patterns where allegations alone rarely prompt swift federal charges. Late-breaking evidence or accelerated grand jury proceedings could shift odds.