Recent inflation readings, including the April 2026 CPI release, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate at its current 3.50%-3.75% target range through the June and July FOMC meetings. The April 29 decision to hold steady, amid solid economic growth and elevated price pressures, has anchored the 93% market-implied probability for a Pause-Pause-Pause outcome. This pricing reflects the wisdom of crowds in futures markets, where participants see limited room for easing given the Fed’s dual-mandate focus. A sharper labor-market deterioration or clearer disinflation trajectory could still introduce volatility ahead of the June 16-17 gathering.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 5.0%
Other 3.2%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.4%
$49,044 Wol.
$49,044 Wol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 5.0%
Other 3.2%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.4%
$49,044 Wol.
$49,044 Wol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,608 Wol.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,665 Wol.
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,568 Wol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,622 Wol.
1%
Other
$1,595 Wol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings, including the April 2026 CPI release, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate at its current 3.50%-3.75% target range through the June and July FOMC meetings. The April 29 decision to hold steady, amid solid economic growth and elevated price pressures, has anchored the 93% market-implied probability for a Pause-Pause-Pause outcome. This pricing reflects the wisdom of crowds in futures markets, where participants see limited room for easing given the Fed’s dual-mandate focus. A sharper labor-market deterioration or clearer disinflation trajectory could still introduce volatility ahead of the June 16-17 gathering.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Wolumen
$49,044Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings, including the April 2026 CPI release, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate at its current 3.50%-3.75% target range through the June and July FOMC meetings. The April 29 decision to hold steady, amid solid economic growth and elevated price pressures, has anchored the 93% market-implied probability for a Pause-Pause-Pause outcome. This pricing reflects the wisdom of crowds in futures markets, where participants see limited room for easing given the Fed’s dual-mandate focus. A sharper labor-market deterioration or clearer disinflation trajectory could still introduce volatility ahead of the June 16-17 gathering.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$49,044Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings, including the April 2026 CPI release, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate at its current 3.50%-3.75% target range through the June and July FOMC meetings. The April 29 decision to hold steady, amid solid economic growth and elevated price pressures, has anchored the 93% market-implied probability for a Pause-Pause-Pause outcome. This pricing reflects the wisdom of crowds in futures markets, where participants see limited room for easing given the Fed’s dual-mandate focus. A sharper labor-market deterioration or clearer disinflation trajectory could still introduce volatility ahead of the June 16-17 gathering.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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