The dominant 98.3% market-implied odds for three consecutive pauses through the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings reflect a resilient U.S. economy with steady nonfarm payroll gains and inflation metrics that have remained above the Fed’s 2% target in recent releases. Traders have priced in the current 4.25-4.50% fed funds range as appropriate given solid consumer spending and corporate earnings momentum, reinforced by recent Fed communications that stress patience over any near-term easing. This consensus aligns with historical patterns where stable labor conditions and moderate growth keep policy on hold absent clear disinflation signals. A sharper drop in May 2026 CPI or an abrupt rise in unemployment claims could still prompt a reassessment of the rate path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoDecyzje Fed (marzec-czerwiec)
Decyzje Fed (marzec-czerwiec)
Pauza–Pauza–Pauza 98.3%
Zatrzymanie–zatrzymanie–obniżka 1.4%
Inne <1%
$1,104,501 Wol.
$1,104,501 Wol.
Jun 17, 2026
Pauza–Pauza–Pauza
98%
Zatrzymanie–zatrzymanie–obniżka
1%
Inne
1%
Pauza–Pauza–Pauza 98.3%
Zatrzymanie–zatrzymanie–obniżka 1.4%
Inne <1%
$1,104,501 Wol.
$1,104,501 Wol.
Jun 17, 2026
Pauza–Pauza–Pauza
$63,614 Wol.
98%
Zatrzymanie–zatrzymanie–obniżka
$42,236 Wol.
1%
Inne
$253,310 Wol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe dominant 98.3% market-implied odds for three consecutive pauses through the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings reflect a resilient U.S. economy with steady nonfarm payroll gains and inflation metrics that have remained above the Fed’s 2% target in recent releases. Traders have priced in the current 4.25-4.50% fed funds range as appropriate given solid consumer spending and corporate earnings momentum, reinforced by recent Fed communications that stress patience over any near-term easing. This consensus aligns with historical patterns where stable labor conditions and moderate growth keep policy on hold absent clear disinflation signals. A sharper drop in May 2026 CPI or an abrupt rise in unemployment claims could still prompt a reassessment of the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,104,501Data zakończenia
Jun 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe dominant 98.3% market-implied odds for three consecutive pauses through the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings reflect a resilient U.S. economy with steady nonfarm payroll gains and inflation metrics that have remained above the Fed’s 2% target in recent releases. Traders have priced in the current 4.25-4.50% fed funds range as appropriate given solid consumer spending and corporate earnings momentum, reinforced by recent Fed communications that stress patience over any near-term easing. This consensus aligns with historical patterns where stable labor conditions and moderate growth keep policy on hold absent clear disinflation signals. A sharper drop in May 2026 CPI or an abrupt rise in unemployment claims could still prompt a reassessment of the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$1,104,501Data zakończenia
Jun 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The dominant 98.3% market-implied odds for three consecutive pauses through the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings reflect a resilient U.S. economy with steady nonfarm payroll gains and inflation metrics that have remained above the Fed’s 2% target in recent releases. Traders have priced in the current 4.25-4.50% fed funds range as appropriate given solid consumer spending and corporate earnings momentum, reinforced by recent Fed communications that stress patience over any near-term easing. This consensus aligns with historical patterns where stable labor conditions and moderate growth keep policy on hold absent clear disinflation signals. A sharper drop in May 2026 CPI or an abrupt rise in unemployment claims could still prompt a reassessment of the rate path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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