Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by recent energy shocks and supply disruptions, supports market-implied odds near 45.5% for at least one rate hike in 2026 despite the current 3.50-3.75% federal funds range. July’s softer CPI print (3.4% headline, 2.5% core) and weak employment data have tempered near-term hike probabilities for September, creating the close balance. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether labor-market softening will outweigh price pressures, with FOMC dot-plot signals from June already embedding modest tightening expectations. Upcoming September and later FOMC meetings, fresh CPI releases, and any escalation in geopolitical energy risks remain the decisive catalysts that could shift the 2026 rate path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPodwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Podwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Tak
46% szansa
$7,511,224 Wol.
$7,511,224 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Tak
46% szansa
$7,511,224 Wol.
$7,511,224 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by recent energy shocks and supply disruptions, supports market-implied odds near 45.5% for at least one rate hike in 2026 despite the current 3.50-3.75% federal funds range. July’s softer CPI print (3.4% headline, 2.5% core) and weak employment data have tempered near-term hike probabilities for September, creating the close balance. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether labor-market softening will outweigh price pressures, with FOMC dot-plot signals from June already embedding modest tightening expectations. Upcoming September and later FOMC meetings, fresh CPI releases, and any escalation in geopolitical energy risks remain the decisive catalysts that could shift the 2026 rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$7,511,224Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by recent energy shocks and supply disruptions, supports market-implied odds near 45.5% for at least one rate hike in 2026 despite the current 3.50-3.75% federal funds range. July’s softer CPI print (3.4% headline, 2.5% core) and weak employment data have tempered near-term hike probabilities for September, creating the close balance. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether labor-market softening will outweigh price pressures, with FOMC dot-plot signals from June already embedding modest tightening expectations. Upcoming September and later FOMC meetings, fresh CPI releases, and any escalation in geopolitical energy risks remain the decisive catalysts that could shift the 2026 rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$7,511,349Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by recent energy shocks and supply disruptions, supports market-implied odds near 45.5% for at least one rate hike in 2026 despite the current 3.50-3.75% federal funds range. July’s softer CPI print (3.4% headline, 2.5% core) and weak employment data have tempered near-term hike probabilities for September, creating the close balance. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether labor-market softening will outweigh price pressures, with FOMC dot-plot signals from June already embedding modest tightening expectations. Upcoming September and later FOMC meetings, fresh CPI releases, and any escalation in geopolitical energy risks remain the decisive catalysts that could shift the 2026 rate path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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