Polymarket traders price a 68.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike throughout 2026, reflecting resilient labor market dynamics offsetting hotter-than-expected April CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—despite a steady 4.3% unemployment rate and modest 115,000 job gains. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29 meeting amid an 8-4 dissent split, underscoring policy caution as core inflation pressures persist without clear acceleration. Trader consensus anticipates steady policy through year-end, with the June 16-17 FOMC as the pivotal catalyst amid Treasury yields hovering near 4.2% and CME FedWatch signaling low hike odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPodwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Podwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Tak
$1,099,324 Wol.
$1,099,324 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Tak
$1,099,324 Wol.
$1,099,324 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price a 68.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike throughout 2026, reflecting resilient labor market dynamics offsetting hotter-than-expected April CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—despite a steady 4.3% unemployment rate and modest 115,000 job gains. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29 meeting amid an 8-4 dissent split, underscoring policy caution as core inflation pressures persist without clear acceleration. Trader consensus anticipates steady policy through year-end, with the June 16-17 FOMC as the pivotal catalyst amid Treasury yields hovering near 4.2% and CME FedWatch signaling low hike odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,099,324Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price a 68.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike throughout 2026, reflecting resilient labor market dynamics offsetting hotter-than-expected April CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—despite a steady 4.3% unemployment rate and modest 115,000 job gains. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29 meeting amid an 8-4 dissent split, underscoring policy caution as core inflation pressures persist without clear acceleration. Trader consensus anticipates steady policy through year-end, with the June 16-17 FOMC as the pivotal catalyst amid Treasury yields hovering near 4.2% and CME FedWatch signaling low hike odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$1,099,324Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 68.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike throughout 2026, reflecting resilient labor market dynamics offsetting hotter-than-expected April CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—despite a steady 4.3% unemployment rate and modest 115,000 job gains. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29 meeting amid an 8-4 dissent split, underscoring policy caution as core inflation pressures persist without clear acceleration. Trader consensus anticipates steady policy through year-end, with the June 16-17 FOMC as the pivotal catalyst amid Treasury yields hovering near 4.2% and CME FedWatch signaling low hike odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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