Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July, above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside resilient economic activity and Middle East-driven energy pressures, supports the 46.5% implied probability of at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026. Counterbalancing this, softer July CPI core readings at 2.5% and a weaker-than-expected jobs report have tempered near-term hike odds, with futures pricing only a 38% chance for September. The June FOMC dot plot median projected one hike by year-end to 3.75%, though the new chair’s lack of projections and three dissents in July highlight internal divisions. The closely balanced Polymarket reflects trader uncertainty over whether data will sustain hawkish momentum or allow a hold through year-end. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and August CPI release remain key swing catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPodwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Podwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Tak
47% szansa
$7,535,476 Wol.
$7,535,476 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Tak
47% szansa
$7,535,476 Wol.
$7,535,476 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July, above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside resilient economic activity and Middle East-driven energy pressures, supports the 46.5% implied probability of at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026. Counterbalancing this, softer July CPI core readings at 2.5% and a weaker-than-expected jobs report have tempered near-term hike odds, with futures pricing only a 38% chance for September. The June FOMC dot plot median projected one hike by year-end to 3.75%, though the new chair’s lack of projections and three dissents in July highlight internal divisions. The closely balanced Polymarket reflects trader uncertainty over whether data will sustain hawkish momentum or allow a hold through year-end. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and August CPI release remain key swing catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$7,535,476Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July, above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside resilient economic activity and Middle East-driven energy pressures, supports the 46.5% implied probability of at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026. Counterbalancing this, softer July CPI core readings at 2.5% and a weaker-than-expected jobs report have tempered near-term hike odds, with futures pricing only a 38% chance for September. The June FOMC dot plot median projected one hike by year-end to 3.75%, though the new chair’s lack of projections and three dissents in July highlight internal divisions. The closely balanced Polymarket reflects trader uncertainty over whether data will sustain hawkish momentum or allow a hold through year-end. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and August CPI release remain key swing catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$7,535,483Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July, above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside resilient economic activity and Middle East-driven energy pressures, supports the 46.5% implied probability of at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026. Counterbalancing this, softer July CPI core readings at 2.5% and a weaker-than-expected jobs report have tempered near-term hike odds, with futures pricing only a 38% chance for September. The June FOMC dot plot median projected one hike by year-end to 3.75%, though the new chair’s lack of projections and three dissents in July highlight internal divisions. The closely balanced Polymarket reflects trader uncertainty over whether data will sustain hawkish momentum or allow a hold through year-end. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and August CPI release remain key swing catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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