Adama Barrow holds the strongest position as the incumbent National People’s Party candidate seeking a third term in the December 5, 2026, first-past-the-post election. Recent August opinion polls showed him leading voting intention at 32 percent ahead of Ousainou Darboe at 25 percent and Talib Ahmed Bensouda at 19 percent, with traders assigning him the highest implied probability. Fragmented opposition support and the absence of a unified coalition continue to favor the sitting president despite ongoing criticism of his term extension. Violent protests over prolonged electricity blackouts in early September prompted Barrow to announce emergency power additions by late October, an event that has not yet shifted market pricing away from his lead. Lower probabilities for Darboe, Bensouda, Essa Faal, Bakary K. Badjie, and others align with their regional or niche backing in the current polling environment.