Google's planned unveiling of its Gemini 3.2 Flash large language model at the I/O 2026 developer conference on May 19 drives the overwhelming 90.5% market-implied odds for that date. Multiple credible leaks in early May, including model strings in iOS app builds, AI Studio metadata, and anonymous LM Arena benchmarks, have confirmed the lightweight version's strong coding and reasoning performance at a fraction of flagship inference costs. This aligns with Google's recent cadence of rapid Flash-tier updates and positions the release ahead of rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series. A last-minute delay past the two-day event window remains the main realistic risk that could shift sentiment, though historical patterns and current developer signals make such a slip improbable.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGemini 3.2 released on...?
Gemini 3.2 released on...?
May 19 91%
May 18 4.4%
May 20 4.1%
No release by May 31 1.1%
$311,507 Wol.
$311,507 Wol.
May 31, 2026
May 16
<1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
4%
May 19
91%
May 20
4%
May 21
1%
May 22
<1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
<1%
May 26
<1%
May 27
<1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
1%
May 19 91%
May 18 4.4%
May 20 4.1%
No release by May 31 1.1%
$311,507 Wol.
$311,507 Wol.
May 31, 2026
May 16
$7,921 Wol.
<1%
May 17
$12,546 Wol.
<1%
May 18
$38,129 Wol.
4%
May 19
$112,333 Wol.
91%
May 20
$17,238 Wol.
4%
May 21
$10,655 Wol.
1%
May 22
$13,205 Wol.
<1%
May 23
$4,089 Wol.
<1%
May 24
$4,895 Wol.
<1%
May 25
$3,317 Wol.
<1%
May 26
$3,936 Wol.
<1%
May 27
$4,381 Wol.
<1%
May 28
$3,048 Wol.
<1%
May 29
$2,392 Wol.
<1%
May 30
$6,223 Wol.
<1%
May 31
$5,574 Wol.
<1%
No release by May 31
$20,056 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's planned unveiling of its Gemini 3.2 Flash large language model at the I/O 2026 developer conference on May 19 drives the overwhelming 90.5% market-implied odds for that date. Multiple credible leaks in early May, including model strings in iOS app builds, AI Studio metadata, and anonymous LM Arena benchmarks, have confirmed the lightweight version's strong coding and reasoning performance at a fraction of flagship inference costs. This aligns with Google's recent cadence of rapid Flash-tier updates and positions the release ahead of rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series. A last-minute delay past the two-day event window remains the main realistic risk that could shift sentiment, though historical patterns and current developer signals make such a slip improbable.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$311,507Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's planned unveiling of its Gemini 3.2 Flash large language model at the I/O 2026 developer conference on May 19 drives the overwhelming 90.5% market-implied odds for that date. Multiple credible leaks in early May, including model strings in iOS app builds, AI Studio metadata, and anonymous LM Arena benchmarks, have confirmed the lightweight version's strong coding and reasoning performance at a fraction of flagship inference costs. This aligns with Google's recent cadence of rapid Flash-tier updates and positions the release ahead of rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series. A last-minute delay past the two-day event window remains the main realistic risk that could shift sentiment, though historical patterns and current developer signals make such a slip improbable.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$311,507Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's planned unveiling of its Gemini 3.2 Flash large language model at the I/O 2026 developer conference on May 19 drives the overwhelming 90.5% market-implied odds for that date. Multiple credible leaks in early May, including model strings in iOS app builds, AI Studio metadata, and anonymous LM Arena benchmarks, have confirmed the lightweight version's strong coding and reasoning performance at a fraction of flagship inference costs. This aligns with Google's recent cadence of rapid Flash-tier updates and positions the release ahead of rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series. A last-minute delay past the two-day event window remains the main realistic risk that could shift sentiment, though historical patterns and current developer signals make such a slip improbable.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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