Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to Gemini 3.2 releasing on May 19, driven by mounting leaks and official teases ahead of Google I/O's keynote that day. Recent sightings of Gemini 3.2 Flash and Pro in the Gemini app, iOS builds, and LM Arena testing—coupled with Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian's "very, very soon" comment last week—signal an imminent model release to bolster competitive positioning against GPT-5 and Claude Opus rivals, emphasizing faster reasoning and improved tool calling. Historical I/O patterns support this timing for frontier large language model drops. Realistic challenges include last-minute technical hurdles delaying availability beyond announcement, a pivot to Gemini 3.5, or preview-only rollout, though deprecation of older Flash variants underscores urgency for a swift upgrade.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGemini 3.2 released on...?
Gemini 3.2 released on...?
May 19 91%
May 18 5.0%
May 20 2.3%
No release by May 31 1.4%
$294,678 Wol.
$294,678 Wol.
May 31, 2026
May 15
<1%
May 16
<1%
May 17
1%
May 18
5%
May 19
91%
May 20
2%
May 21
<1%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
<1%
May 26
<1%
May 27
<1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
1%
May 19 91%
May 18 5.0%
May 20 2.3%
No release by May 31 1.4%
$294,678 Wol.
$294,678 Wol.
May 31, 2026
May 15
$7,432 Wol.
<1%
May 16
$6,943 Wol.
<1%
May 17
$9,655 Wol.
1%
May 18
$35,110 Wol.
5%
May 19
$106,724 Wol.
91%
May 20
$16,401 Wol.
2%
May 21
$9,962 Wol.
<1%
May 22
$11,573 Wol.
1%
May 23
$4,089 Wol.
<1%
May 24
$4,793 Wol.
<1%
May 25
$3,252 Wol.
<1%
May 26
$3,833 Wol.
<1%
May 27
$4,278 Wol.
<1%
May 28
$2,926 Wol.
<1%
May 29
$2,390 Wol.
<1%
May 30
$6,186 Wol.
<1%
May 31
$5,572 Wol.
<1%
No release by May 31
$19,536 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to Gemini 3.2 releasing on May 19, driven by mounting leaks and official teases ahead of Google I/O's keynote that day. Recent sightings of Gemini 3.2 Flash and Pro in the Gemini app, iOS builds, and LM Arena testing—coupled with Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian's "very, very soon" comment last week—signal an imminent model release to bolster competitive positioning against GPT-5 and Claude Opus rivals, emphasizing faster reasoning and improved tool calling. Historical I/O patterns support this timing for frontier large language model drops. Realistic challenges include last-minute technical hurdles delaying availability beyond announcement, a pivot to Gemini 3.5, or preview-only rollout, though deprecation of older Flash variants underscores urgency for a swift upgrade.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$294,678Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to Gemini 3.2 releasing on May 19, driven by mounting leaks and official teases ahead of Google I/O's keynote that day. Recent sightings of Gemini 3.2 Flash and Pro in the Gemini app, iOS builds, and LM Arena testing—coupled with Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian's "very, very soon" comment last week—signal an imminent model release to bolster competitive positioning against GPT-5 and Claude Opus rivals, emphasizing faster reasoning and improved tool calling. Historical I/O patterns support this timing for frontier large language model drops. Realistic challenges include last-minute technical hurdles delaying availability beyond announcement, a pivot to Gemini 3.5, or preview-only rollout, though deprecation of older Flash variants underscores urgency for a swift upgrade.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$294,678Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to Gemini 3.2 releasing on May 19, driven by mounting leaks and official teases ahead of Google I/O's keynote that day. Recent sightings of Gemini 3.2 Flash and Pro in the Gemini app, iOS builds, and LM Arena testing—coupled with Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian's "very, very soon" comment last week—signal an imminent model release to bolster competitive positioning against GPT-5 and Claude Opus rivals, emphasizing faster reasoning and improved tool calling. Historical I/O patterns support this timing for frontier large language model drops. Realistic challenges include last-minute technical hurdles delaying availability beyond announcement, a pivot to Gemini 3.5, or preview-only rollout, though deprecation of older Flash variants underscores urgency for a swift upgrade.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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