Germany's subdued Q2 2026 GDP outlook stems primarily from the sharp energy-price shock triggered by the Iran conflict, which prompted the government to slash its full-year growth forecast to 0.5 percent in April. Q1 expansion registered just 0.3 percent quarter-over-quarter, while April HICP inflation accelerated to 2.9 percent and the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 6.4 percent. These factors have compressed near-term growth expectations and elevated downside risks, producing closely matched market-implied odds across the lowest growth bins. Traders are weighing persistent inflation pressures and weak industrial momentum against ongoing fiscal stimulus and potential ECB rate stability, leaving room for either mild contraction or modest positive print depending on energy-price developments through June.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGermany GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026?
0.4-0.6% 51%
1.0-1.2% 47%
1.3%+ 42%
0.7-0.9% 25%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 30, 2026
≤0.0%
48%
0.1-0.3%
45%
0.4-0.6%
28%
0.7-0.9%
25%
1.0-1.2%
47%
1.3%+
42%
0.4-0.6% 51%
1.0-1.2% 47%
1.3%+ 42%
0.7-0.9% 25%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 30, 2026
≤0.0%
$8 Wol.
48%
0.1-0.3%
$5 Wol.
45%
0.4-0.6%
$4 Wol.
28%
0.7-0.9%
$0 Wol.
25%
1.0-1.2%
$0 Wol.
47%
1.3%+
$0 Wol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany's subdued Q2 2026 GDP outlook stems primarily from the sharp energy-price shock triggered by the Iran conflict, which prompted the government to slash its full-year growth forecast to 0.5 percent in April. Q1 expansion registered just 0.3 percent quarter-over-quarter, while April HICP inflation accelerated to 2.9 percent and the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 6.4 percent. These factors have compressed near-term growth expectations and elevated downside risks, producing closely matched market-implied odds across the lowest growth bins. Traders are weighing persistent inflation pressures and weak industrial momentum against ongoing fiscal stimulus and potential ECB rate stability, leaving room for either mild contraction or modest positive print depending on energy-price developments through June.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
Wolumen
$17Data zakończenia
Jul 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany's subdued Q2 2026 GDP outlook stems primarily from the sharp energy-price shock triggered by the Iran conflict, which prompted the government to slash its full-year growth forecast to 0.5 percent in April. Q1 expansion registered just 0.3 percent quarter-over-quarter, while April HICP inflation accelerated to 2.9 percent and the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 6.4 percent. These factors have compressed near-term growth expectations and elevated downside risks, producing closely matched market-implied odds across the lowest growth bins. Traders are weighing persistent inflation pressures and weak industrial momentum against ongoing fiscal stimulus and potential ECB rate stability, leaving room for either mild contraction or modest positive print depending on energy-price developments through June.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$17Data zakończenia
Jul 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Germany's subdued Q2 2026 GDP outlook stems primarily from the sharp energy-price shock triggered by the Iran conflict, which prompted the government to slash its full-year growth forecast to 0.5 percent in April. Q1 expansion registered just 0.3 percent quarter-over-quarter, while April HICP inflation accelerated to 2.9 percent and the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 6.4 percent. These factors have compressed near-term growth expectations and elevated downside risks, producing closely matched market-implied odds across the lowest growth bins. Traders are weighing persistent inflation pressures and weak industrial momentum against ongoing fiscal stimulus and potential ECB rate stability, leaving room for either mild contraction or modest positive print depending on energy-price developments through June.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania