Guinea-Bissau's presidential contest remains highly fragmented amid ongoing transition uncertainties following the November 2025 coup that annulled an election where Fernando Dias da Costa appeared to edge out incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló. The military-led authorities approved a new constitution via August 2026 referendum that shifts to a stronger presidential system, imposes strict five-year residency rules and a roughly $90,000 candidacy deposit, and reduces parliament's size, narrowing eligibility and raising barriers for many contenders. Recent statements from the transitional prime minister and electoral commission indicate the December 6 vote may miss legal deadlines and face delays, while opposition figures including PAIGC leader Domingos Simões Pereira remain detained and Embaló has been barred from returning. These procedural hurdles, combined with risks of boycotts and party realignments, sustain trader consensus on a wide-open field with no dominant favorite.