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Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

icon for Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Fernando Dias da Costa 50.7%

Siga Batista 39.8%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa 4.5%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló 2.8%

Polymarket

$311,972 Wol.

Fernando Dias da Costa 50.7%

Siga Batista 39.8%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa 4.5%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló 2.8%

Polymarket

$311,972 Wol.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$47,964 Wol.

51%

Siga Batista

$21,449 Wol.

23%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$15,658 Wol.

5%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$18,181 Wol.

3%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$17,967 Wol.

2%

José Mário Vaz

$21,417 Wol.

2%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$17,560 Wol.

2%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$87,423 Wol.

1%

João Bernardo Vieira

$15,099 Wol.

1%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$18,883 Wol.

1%

João de Deus Mendes

$16,238 Wol.

1%

Baciro Djá

$14,133 Wol.

<1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).The frontrunner status of Fernando Dias da Costa in Guinea-Bissau's December 2026 presidential election reflects his leading 49.4 percent share in the annulled November 2025 vote, where he narrowly outpaced incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló before a military coup halted results and installed a transitional junta. This prior performance under the PAI-Terra Ranka alliance gives him the clearest established base in a crowded field, while independent Siga Batista has risen on momentum despite minimal prior support. The junta's decree scheduling the redo under ECOWAS pressure for constitutional order, alongside April reports of political violence, underscores transition uncertainties that sustain trader focus on these dynamics without major recent shifts altering the positioning.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Wolumen
$311,972
Data zakończenia
Nov 23, 2025
Rynek otwarty
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).The frontrunner status of Fernando Dias da Costa in Guinea-Bissau's December 2026 presidential election reflects his leading 49.4 percent share in the annulled November 2025 vote, where he narrowly outpaced incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló before a military coup halted results and installed a transitional junta. This prior performance under the PAI-Terra Ranka alliance gives him the clearest established base in a crowded field, while independent Siga Batista has risen on momentum despite minimal prior support. The junta's decree scheduling the redo under ECOWAS pressure for constitutional order, alongside April reports of political violence, underscores transition uncertainties that sustain trader focus on these dynamics without major recent shifts altering the positioning.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Wolumen
$311,972
Data zakończenia
Nov 23, 2025
Rynek otwarty
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

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Często zadawane pytania

"Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 12 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Fernando Dias da Costa" z 51%, za nim "Siga Batista" z 23%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 51¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 51% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" wygenerował $312K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Nov 6, 2025. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election", przeglądaj 12 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" jest "Fernando Dias da Costa" z 51%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 51% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Siga Batista" z 23%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.