Recent global model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a moderating northerly flow over central Spain that should cap Madrid's maximum temperature on September 16 near 29–30 °C, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 27–31 °C. Afternoon temperatures are expected to peak under mostly clear skies with light to moderate northeast winds, limiting daytime heating compared with the 33–35 °C readings recorded on the preceding days. Ensemble spread remains modest but reflects typical uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds, keeping probabilities distributed across the 27–31 °C bin. Official AEMET guidance and updated high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will provide the final inputs for market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on September 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 16?
29°C 40%
31°C 39%
28°C 37%
30°C 27%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
5%
28°C
37%
29°C
40%
30°C
27%
31°C
39%
32°C
19%
33°C
15%
34°C
6%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
<1%
29°C 40%
31°C 39%
28°C 37%
30°C 27%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
$0 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Wol.
5%
28°C
$0 Wol.
37%
29°C
$0 Wol.
40%
30°C
$0 Wol.
27%
31°C
$0 Wol.
39%
32°C
$0 Wol.
19%
33°C
$0 Wol.
15%
34°C
$0 Wol.
6%
35°C
$0 Wol.
2%
36°C or higher
$0 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent global model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a moderating northerly flow over central Spain that should cap Madrid's maximum temperature on September 16 near 29–30 °C, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 27–31 °C. Afternoon temperatures are expected to peak under mostly clear skies with light to moderate northeast winds, limiting daytime heating compared with the 33–35 °C readings recorded on the preceding days. Ensemble spread remains modest but reflects typical uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds, keeping probabilities distributed across the 27–31 °C bin. Official AEMET guidance and updated high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will provide the final inputs for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent global model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a moderating northerly flow over central Spain that should cap Madrid's maximum temperature on September 16 near 29–30 °C, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 27–31 °C. Afternoon temperatures are expected to peak under mostly clear skies with light to moderate northeast winds, limiting daytime heating compared with the 33–35 °C readings recorded on the preceding days. Ensemble spread remains modest but reflects typical uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds, keeping probabilities distributed across the 27–31 °C bin. Official AEMET guidance and updated high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will provide the final inputs for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent global model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a moderating northerly flow over central Spain that should cap Madrid's maximum temperature on September 16 near 29–30 °C, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 27–31 °C. Afternoon temperatures are expected to peak under mostly clear skies with light to moderate northeast winds, limiting daytime heating compared with the 33–35 °C readings recorded on the preceding days. Ensemble spread remains modest but reflects typical uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds, keeping probabilities distributed across the 27–31 °C bin. Official AEMET guidance and updated high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will provide the final inputs for market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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