Trader consensus places nearly equal implied probability on 32°C or 33°C as Manila’s maximum temperature for September 16, reflecting tight model spread in official PAGASA and global guidance during the southwest monsoon. Key differentiators include afternoon convection timing, cloud cover fraction, and localized urban heat effects, which can shift peak readings by 1–2°C depending on whether scattered thunderstorms develop before or after the daily high. Recent sea-surface temperature anomalies in the western Pacific and neutral ENSO conditions support typical late-summer instability, while wind patterns from the South China Sea influence moisture transport and cooling. Updated model runs and PAGASA’s next morning briefing are the next likely catalysts for any odds shift before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on September 16?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 16?
32°C 48%
33°C 24%
31°C 16%
34°C 7%
NOWE
$13,706 Wol.
NOWE
$13,706 Wol.
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
6%
31°C
16%
32°C
48%
33°C
24%
34°C
7%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 48%
33°C 24%
31°C 16%
34°C 7%
NOWE
$13,706 Wol.
NOWE
$13,706 Wol.
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
$377 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$295 Wol.
1%
28°C
$179 Wol.
2%
29°C
$191 Wol.
2%
30°C
$1,556 Wol.
6%
31°C
$2,714 Wol.
16%
32°C
$3,911 Wol.
48%
33°C
$3,848 Wol.
24%
34°C
$370 Wol.
7%
35°C
$33 Wol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$231 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus places nearly equal implied probability on 32°C or 33°C as Manila’s maximum temperature for September 16, reflecting tight model spread in official PAGASA and global guidance during the southwest monsoon. Key differentiators include afternoon convection timing, cloud cover fraction, and localized urban heat effects, which can shift peak readings by 1–2°C depending on whether scattered thunderstorms develop before or after the daily high. Recent sea-surface temperature anomalies in the western Pacific and neutral ENSO conditions support typical late-summer instability, while wind patterns from the South China Sea influence moisture transport and cooling. Updated model runs and PAGASA’s next morning briefing are the next likely catalysts for any odds shift before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Wolumen
$13,706Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus places nearly equal implied probability on 32°C or 33°C as Manila’s maximum temperature for September 16, reflecting tight model spread in official PAGASA and global guidance during the southwest monsoon. Key differentiators include afternoon convection timing, cloud cover fraction, and localized urban heat effects, which can shift peak readings by 1–2°C depending on whether scattered thunderstorms develop before or after the daily high. Recent sea-surface temperature anomalies in the western Pacific and neutral ENSO conditions support typical late-summer instability, while wind patterns from the South China Sea influence moisture transport and cooling. Updated model runs and PAGASA’s next morning briefing are the next likely catalysts for any odds shift before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$13,706Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus places nearly equal implied probability on 32°C or 33°C as Manila’s maximum temperature for September 16, reflecting tight model spread in official PAGASA and global guidance during the southwest monsoon. Key differentiators include afternoon convection timing, cloud cover fraction, and localized urban heat effects, which can shift peak readings by 1–2°C depending on whether scattered thunderstorms develop before or after the daily high. Recent sea-surface temperature anomalies in the western Pacific and neutral ENSO conditions support typical late-summer instability, while wind patterns from the South China Sea influence moisture transport and cooling. Updated model runs and PAGASA’s next morning briefing are the next likely catalysts for any odds shift before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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