Recent model consensus from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency points to a maximum of 26–28°C in Tokyo on September 15, with widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and southerly flow limiting solar heating. This aligns with the seasonal decline from early-September peaks above 30°C and the influence of an approaching frontal system that has already produced above-normal rainfall and cooler-than-average daytime readings through mid-month. Historical September 15 averages near 26–27°C provide additional context, while the tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects trader weighting of ensemble guidance showing modest day-to-day variability. Updated JMA and global model runs expected overnight will refine rain timing and any potential for brief clearing that could push readings toward 28°C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 15?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 15?
27°C 40%
26°C 24%
28°C 22%
25°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
4%
25°C
8%
26°C
24%
27°C
40%
28°C
22%
29°C
5%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 40%
26°C 24%
28°C 22%
25°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
21°C or below
$531 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$357 Wol.
1%
23°C
$171 Wol.
2%
24°C
$155 Wol.
4%
25°C
$314 Wol.
8%
26°C
$2,191 Wol.
24%
27°C
$370 Wol.
40%
28°C
$832 Wol.
22%
29°C
$288 Wol.
5%
30°C
$213 Wol.
1%
31°C or higher
$252 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency points to a maximum of 26–28°C in Tokyo on September 15, with widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and southerly flow limiting solar heating. This aligns with the seasonal decline from early-September peaks above 30°C and the influence of an approaching frontal system that has already produced above-normal rainfall and cooler-than-average daytime readings through mid-month. Historical September 15 averages near 26–27°C provide additional context, while the tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects trader weighting of ensemble guidance showing modest day-to-day variability. Updated JMA and global model runs expected overnight will refine rain timing and any potential for brief clearing that could push readings toward 28°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
Wolumen
$5,675Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency points to a maximum of 26–28°C in Tokyo on September 15, with widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and southerly flow limiting solar heating. This aligns with the seasonal decline from early-September peaks above 30°C and the influence of an approaching frontal system that has already produced above-normal rainfall and cooler-than-average daytime readings through mid-month. Historical September 15 averages near 26–27°C provide additional context, while the tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects trader weighting of ensemble guidance showing modest day-to-day variability. Updated JMA and global model runs expected overnight will refine rain timing and any potential for brief clearing that could push readings toward 28°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$5,675Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency points to a maximum of 26–28°C in Tokyo on September 15, with widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and southerly flow limiting solar heating. This aligns with the seasonal decline from early-September peaks above 30°C and the influence of an approaching frontal system that has already produced above-normal rainfall and cooler-than-average daytime readings through mid-month. Historical September 15 averages near 26–27°C provide additional context, while the tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects trader weighting of ensemble guidance showing modest day-to-day variability. Updated JMA and global model runs expected overnight will refine rain timing and any potential for brief clearing that could push readings toward 28°C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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