Traders see 30–32°C as the most likely high for Shenzhen on September 14, with the three leading outcomes collectively capturing over 75% of market-implied probability. This tight clustering stems from ensemble model guidance showing a typical late-summer subtropical pattern: daytime heating moderated by high humidity, variable cloud cover, and light southerly flow from the South China Sea. Key differentiating variables include the timing and extent of any afternoon convection, which could cap the peak near 30°C, versus clearer skies that would allow readings to reach 32–33°C. Historical September maxima for the city average around 31°C, providing a climatological anchor. Updated CMA and ECMWF runs tomorrow morning will likely refine the consensus ahead of the official daily observation used for market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 14?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 14?
31°C 30%
32°C 24%
30°C 23%
33°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
8%
30°C
23%
31°C
30%
32°C
24%
33°C
11%
34°C
3%
35°C or higher
2%
31°C 30%
32°C 24%
30°C 23%
33°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
$135 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$127 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$123 Wol.
1%
28°C
$37 Wol.
4%
29°C
$183 Wol.
8%
30°C
$2,347 Wol.
23%
31°C
$1,294 Wol.
30%
32°C
$541 Wol.
24%
33°C
$102 Wol.
11%
34°C
$275 Wol.
3%
35°C or higher
$20 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 30–32°C as the most likely high for Shenzhen on September 14, with the three leading outcomes collectively capturing over 75% of market-implied probability. This tight clustering stems from ensemble model guidance showing a typical late-summer subtropical pattern: daytime heating moderated by high humidity, variable cloud cover, and light southerly flow from the South China Sea. Key differentiating variables include the timing and extent of any afternoon convection, which could cap the peak near 30°C, versus clearer skies that would allow readings to reach 32–33°C. Historical September maxima for the city average around 31°C, providing a climatological anchor. Updated CMA and ECMWF runs tomorrow morning will likely refine the consensus ahead of the official daily observation used for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Wolumen
$5,184Data zakończenia
Sep 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 30–32°C as the most likely high for Shenzhen on September 14, with the three leading outcomes collectively capturing over 75% of market-implied probability. This tight clustering stems from ensemble model guidance showing a typical late-summer subtropical pattern: daytime heating moderated by high humidity, variable cloud cover, and light southerly flow from the South China Sea. Key differentiating variables include the timing and extent of any afternoon convection, which could cap the peak near 30°C, versus clearer skies that would allow readings to reach 32–33°C. Historical September maxima for the city average around 31°C, providing a climatological anchor. Updated CMA and ECMWF runs tomorrow morning will likely refine the consensus ahead of the official daily observation used for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$5,184Data zakończenia
Sep 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Traders see 30–32°C as the most likely high for Shenzhen on September 14, with the three leading outcomes collectively capturing over 75% of market-implied probability. This tight clustering stems from ensemble model guidance showing a typical late-summer subtropical pattern: daytime heating moderated by high humidity, variable cloud cover, and light southerly flow from the South China Sea. Key differentiating variables include the timing and extent of any afternoon convection, which could cap the peak near 30°C, versus clearer skies that would allow readings to reach 32–33°C. Historical September maxima for the city average around 31°C, providing a climatological anchor. Updated CMA and ECMWF runs tomorrow morning will likely refine the consensus ahead of the official daily observation used for market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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