Northeast monsoon flow combined with a developing broad low-pressure system over the South China Sea is the primary driver shaping trader consensus for Hong Kong's September 12 maximum temperature, with official Hong Kong Observatory guidance indicating a 25–30°C range amid increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and locally gusty northeast winds. Recent model runs highlight uncertainty in daytime heating due to variable shower timing and coverage, which could suppress or allow brief peaks near 31–32°C if breaks in cloud occur. Historical September baselines around 29–31°C provide context, but the current setup favors modest cooling relative to earlier in the week. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 30–32°C because short-range forecasts remain sensitive to small shifts in steering flow or convective development ahead of the weekend. Updated Hong Kong Observatory briefings and ensemble guidance over the next 48 hours represent key data points that could refine these probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 12?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 12?
31°C 33%
30°C 25%
32°C 18%
29°C 17%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 12, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
5%
29°C
17%
30°C
25%
31°C
33%
32°C
18%
33°C
3%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 33%
30°C 25%
32°C 18%
29°C 17%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 12, 2026
25°C or below
$359 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Wol.
1%
27°C
$26 Wol.
2%
28°C
$67 Wol.
5%
29°C
$197 Wol.
17%
30°C
$129 Wol.
25%
31°C
$748 Wol.
33%
32°C
$90 Wol.
18%
33°C
$207 Wol.
3%
34°C
$160 Wol.
1%
35°C or higher
$149 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Northeast monsoon flow combined with a developing broad low-pressure system over the South China Sea is the primary driver shaping trader consensus for Hong Kong's September 12 maximum temperature, with official Hong Kong Observatory guidance indicating a 25–30°C range amid increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and locally gusty northeast winds. Recent model runs highlight uncertainty in daytime heating due to variable shower timing and coverage, which could suppress or allow brief peaks near 31–32°C if breaks in cloud occur. Historical September baselines around 29–31°C provide context, but the current setup favors modest cooling relative to earlier in the week. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 30–32°C because short-range forecasts remain sensitive to small shifts in steering flow or convective development ahead of the weekend. Updated Hong Kong Observatory briefings and ensemble guidance over the next 48 hours represent key data points that could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,131Data zakończenia
Sep 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Northeast monsoon flow combined with a developing broad low-pressure system over the South China Sea is the primary driver shaping trader consensus for Hong Kong's September 12 maximum temperature, with official Hong Kong Observatory guidance indicating a 25–30°C range amid increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and locally gusty northeast winds. Recent model runs highlight uncertainty in daytime heating due to variable shower timing and coverage, which could suppress or allow brief peaks near 31–32°C if breaks in cloud occur. Historical September baselines around 29–31°C provide context, but the current setup favors modest cooling relative to earlier in the week. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 30–32°C because short-range forecasts remain sensitive to small shifts in steering flow or convective development ahead of the weekend. Updated Hong Kong Observatory briefings and ensemble guidance over the next 48 hours represent key data points that could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$2,131Data zakończenia
Sep 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Northeast monsoon flow combined with a developing broad low-pressure system over the South China Sea is the primary driver shaping trader consensus for Hong Kong's September 12 maximum temperature, with official Hong Kong Observatory guidance indicating a 25–30°C range amid increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and locally gusty northeast winds. Recent model runs highlight uncertainty in daytime heating due to variable shower timing and coverage, which could suppress or allow brief peaks near 31–32°C if breaks in cloud occur. Historical September baselines around 29–31°C provide context, but the current setup favors modest cooling relative to earlier in the week. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 30–32°C because short-range forecasts remain sensitive to small shifts in steering flow or convective development ahead of the weekend. Updated Hong Kong Observatory briefings and ensemble guidance over the next 48 hours represent key data points that could refine these probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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