Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance place San Francisco’s August 22 high temperature near the long-term August average of 67–70 °F, with marine-layer stratus and persistent onshore flow expected to limit afternoon warming. Coastal locations typically see the daily maximum between late morning and mid-afternoon, after which the west-southwest breeze strengthens and any thinning fog redevelops. Current trader consensus across multiple temperature bins reflects this narrow climatological window plus remaining uncertainty in exact cloud cover and wind timing, keeping implied probabilities elevated from the low-60s through the mid-70s while assigning only minimal odds to extremes. The next NWS forecast update and overnight model runs will provide the final guidance ahead of tomorrow’s official observation at the downtown or airport station.