Recent weather model consensus from sources including GFS and local analyses points to a high of 20–21°C in Warsaw on September 18, driven by post-frontal clearing after Thursday’s rain and moderate southwesterly flow under building high pressure. Mostly cloudy skies will limit daytime heating despite the milder air mass, keeping temperatures below recent seasonal peaks near 23–24°C on September 16. This positions 21°C as the leading market outcome at 45.5% implied probability, with 22°C and 23°C reflecting minor upside variance in afternoon clearing or wind shifts. Low precipitation risk and stable steering patterns reduce the chance of sharper deviations, though ensemble spreads show limited potential for 19°C if cloud cover thickens more than expected.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 18?
21°C 41%
22°C 35%
23°C 15%
20°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 18, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
4%
20°C
8%
21°C
41%
22°C
35%
23°C
15%
24°C
2%
25°C or higher
5%
21°C 41%
22°C 35%
23°C 15%
20°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 18, 2026
15°C or below
$174 Wol.
<1%
16°C
$133 Wol.
<1%
17°C
$4 Wol.
1%
18°C
$4 Wol.
2%
19°C
$0 Wol.
4%
20°C
$59 Wol.
8%
21°C
$183 Wol.
41%
22°C
$101 Wol.
35%
23°C
$155 Wol.
15%
24°C
$4 Wol.
2%
25°C or higher
$88 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources including GFS and local analyses points to a high of 20–21°C in Warsaw on September 18, driven by post-frontal clearing after Thursday’s rain and moderate southwesterly flow under building high pressure. Mostly cloudy skies will limit daytime heating despite the milder air mass, keeping temperatures below recent seasonal peaks near 23–24°C on September 16. This positions 21°C as the leading market outcome at 45.5% implied probability, with 22°C and 23°C reflecting minor upside variance in afternoon clearing or wind shifts. Low precipitation risk and stable steering patterns reduce the chance of sharper deviations, though ensemble spreads show limited potential for 19°C if cloud cover thickens more than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$905Data zakończenia
Sep 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources including GFS and local analyses points to a high of 20–21°C in Warsaw on September 18, driven by post-frontal clearing after Thursday’s rain and moderate southwesterly flow under building high pressure. Mostly cloudy skies will limit daytime heating despite the milder air mass, keeping temperatures below recent seasonal peaks near 23–24°C on September 16. This positions 21°C as the leading market outcome at 45.5% implied probability, with 22°C and 23°C reflecting minor upside variance in afternoon clearing or wind shifts. Low precipitation risk and stable steering patterns reduce the chance of sharper deviations, though ensemble spreads show limited potential for 19°C if cloud cover thickens more than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$905Data zakończenia
Sep 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus from sources including GFS and local analyses points to a high of 20–21°C in Warsaw on September 18, driven by post-frontal clearing after Thursday’s rain and moderate southwesterly flow under building high pressure. Mostly cloudy skies will limit daytime heating despite the milder air mass, keeping temperatures below recent seasonal peaks near 23–24°C on September 16. This positions 21°C as the leading market outcome at 45.5% implied probability, with 22°C and 23°C reflecting minor upside variance in afternoon clearing or wind shifts. Low precipitation risk and stable steering patterns reduce the chance of sharper deviations, though ensemble spreads show limited potential for 19°C if cloud cover thickens more than expected.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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