Recent Fed communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with resilient labor market data and sticky inflation above the 2% target, have driven 10-year Treasury yields to the 4.63–4.70% range as of mid-August 2026, reversing earlier expectations for deeper rate cuts. Persistent core PCE readings near or above 3%, elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, and market pricing of possible policy rate hikes this year have lifted term premiums and reduced the likelihood of substantial yield declines. Key upcoming catalysts include FOMC meetings, August CPI and employment reports, and Treasury supply dynamics that could further anchor longer-term rates. Any shift toward clearer economic softening or dovish policy signals would be required to push yields meaningfully lower before year-end 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
$225,212 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
3.9%
12%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
2%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
4%
3.0%
3%
2.0%
2%
1.0%
2%
$225,212 Wol.
3.9%
$44,197 Wol.
12%
3.8%
$41,312 Wol.
5%
3.7%
$27,383 Wol.
2%
3.6%
$5,587 Wol.
5%
3.5%
$32,973 Wol.
4%
3.0%
$917 Wol.
3%
2.0%
$514 Wol.
2%
1.0%
$40,570 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent Fed communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with resilient labor market data and sticky inflation above the 2% target, have driven 10-year Treasury yields to the 4.63–4.70% range as of mid-August 2026, reversing earlier expectations for deeper rate cuts. Persistent core PCE readings near or above 3%, elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, and market pricing of possible policy rate hikes this year have lifted term premiums and reduced the likelihood of substantial yield declines. Key upcoming catalysts include FOMC meetings, August CPI and employment reports, and Treasury supply dynamics that could further anchor longer-term rates. Any shift toward clearer economic softening or dovish policy signals would be required to push yields meaningfully lower before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Rynek otwarty: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Wolumen
$225,212Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent Fed communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with resilient labor market data and sticky inflation above the 2% target, have driven 10-year Treasury yields to the 4.63–4.70% range as of mid-August 2026, reversing earlier expectations for deeper rate cuts. Persistent core PCE readings near or above 3%, elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, and market pricing of possible policy rate hikes this year have lifted term premiums and reduced the likelihood of substantial yield declines. Key upcoming catalysts include FOMC meetings, August CPI and employment reports, and Treasury supply dynamics that could further anchor longer-term rates. Any shift toward clearer economic softening or dovish policy signals would be required to push yields meaningfully lower before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Wolumen
$225,212Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Fed communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with resilient labor market data and sticky inflation above the 2% target, have driven 10-year Treasury yields to the 4.63–4.70% range as of mid-August 2026, reversing earlier expectations for deeper rate cuts. Persistent core PCE readings near or above 3%, elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, and market pricing of possible policy rate hikes this year have lifted term premiums and reduced the likelihood of substantial yield declines. Key upcoming catalysts include FOMC meetings, August CPI and employment reports, and Treasury supply dynamics that could further anchor longer-term rates. Any shift toward clearer economic softening or dovish policy signals would be required to push yields meaningfully lower before year-end 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania