Traders assign the US a 96.9% implied probability of avoiding debt default by 2027, driven by repeated congressional raises or suspensions of the debt ceiling, Treasury use of extraordinary measures for cash management, and consistent revenue inflows that support timely interest and principal payments. Bipartisan budget deals have extended borrowing authority well beyond immediate horizons, while institutional norms and economic scale make abrupt default politically and fiscally costly. Potential disruptors remain low-probability, such as extended appropriations impasses, severe recession-driven revenue shortfalls, or unforeseen legal challenges to debt authority, though historical patterns show swift resolutions to protect full faith and credit.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% szansa
$16,303 Wol.
$16,303 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% szansa
$16,303 Wol.
$16,303 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign the US a 96.9% implied probability of avoiding debt default by 2027, driven by repeated congressional raises or suspensions of the debt ceiling, Treasury use of extraordinary measures for cash management, and consistent revenue inflows that support timely interest and principal payments. Bipartisan budget deals have extended borrowing authority well beyond immediate horizons, while institutional norms and economic scale make abrupt default politically and fiscally costly. Potential disruptors remain low-probability, such as extended appropriations impasses, severe recession-driven revenue shortfalls, or unforeseen legal challenges to debt authority, though historical patterns show swift resolutions to protect full faith and credit.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Wolumen
$16,303Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign the US a 96.9% implied probability of avoiding debt default by 2027, driven by repeated congressional raises or suspensions of the debt ceiling, Treasury use of extraordinary measures for cash management, and consistent revenue inflows that support timely interest and principal payments. Bipartisan budget deals have extended borrowing authority well beyond immediate horizons, while institutional norms and economic scale make abrupt default politically and fiscally costly. Potential disruptors remain low-probability, such as extended appropriations impasses, severe recession-driven revenue shortfalls, or unforeseen legal challenges to debt authority, though historical patterns show swift resolutions to protect full faith and credit.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Wolumen
$16,303Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign the US a 96.9% implied probability of avoiding debt default by 2027, driven by repeated congressional raises or suspensions of the debt ceiling, Treasury use of extraordinary measures for cash management, and consistent revenue inflows that support timely interest and principal payments. Bipartisan budget deals have extended borrowing authority well beyond immediate horizons, while institutional norms and economic scale make abrupt default politically and fiscally costly. Potential disruptors remain low-probability, such as extended appropriations impasses, severe recession-driven revenue shortfalls, or unforeseen legal challenges to debt authority, though historical patterns show swift resolutions to protect full faith and credit.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania