**Strong early-season activity has positioned the 1250+ outcome as the clear market leader at 85.5%.** As of mid-August 2026, confirmed U.S. tornadoes stand near 1,100–1,124 according to NOAA Storm Prediction Center and Wikipedia tracking, already approaching or exceeding typical full-year averages of roughly 1,200–1,300. Illinois alone has contributed an unusually high share, with over 200 reports through July, far above its climatological norm and driving national totals well ahead of pace. Multiple spring outbreaks, including EF4 events and widespread Midwest activity, produced above-average monthly counts in March and April. With the climatological peak largely complete, remaining summer and fall contributions—typically 200–400 additional tornadoes—make crossing 1,250 the most probable outcome under current conditions. Trader consensus, reflected in the steep probability curve favoring the top bracket, incorporates this verified year-to-date surplus and the absence of major suppressing factors such as persistent drought or unfavorable large-scale patterns. Upcoming SPC monthly summaries and continued verification of preliminary reports will provide the next key data points for refining totals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 86%
1150–1199 7.5%
1200–1249 7.4%
1100–1149 3.8%
$81,752 Wol.
$81,752 Wol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
2%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
8%
1200–1249
7%
1250+
86%
1250+ 86%
1150–1199 7.5%
1200–1249 7.4%
1100–1149 3.8%
$81,752 Wol.
$81,752 Wol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$23,720 Wol.
2%
950–999
$3,618 Wol.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Wol.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 Wol.
<1%
1100–1149
$3,248 Wol.
4%
1150–1199
$4,082 Wol.
8%
1200–1249
$15,917 Wol.
7%
1250+
$18,543 Wol.
86%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Strong early-season activity has positioned the 1250+ outcome as the clear market leader at 85.5%.** As of mid-August 2026, confirmed U.S. tornadoes stand near 1,100–1,124 according to NOAA Storm Prediction Center and Wikipedia tracking, already approaching or exceeding typical full-year averages of roughly 1,200–1,300. Illinois alone has contributed an unusually high share, with over 200 reports through July, far above its climatological norm and driving national totals well ahead of pace.
Multiple spring outbreaks, including EF4 events and widespread Midwest activity, produced above-average monthly counts in March and April. With the climatological peak largely complete, remaining summer and fall contributions—typically 200–400 additional tornadoes—make crossing 1,250 the most probable outcome under current conditions. Trader consensus, reflected in the steep probability curve favoring the top bracket, incorporates this verified year-to-date surplus and the absence of major suppressing factors such as persistent drought or unfavorable large-scale patterns.
Upcoming SPC monthly summaries and continued verification of preliminary reports will provide the next key data points for refining totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Wolumen
$81,752Data zakończenia
Jan 10, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Strong early-season activity has positioned the 1250+ outcome as the clear market leader at 85.5%.** As of mid-August 2026, confirmed U.S. tornadoes stand near 1,100–1,124 according to NOAA Storm Prediction Center and Wikipedia tracking, already approaching or exceeding typical full-year averages of roughly 1,200–1,300. Illinois alone has contributed an unusually high share, with over 200 reports through July, far above its climatological norm and driving national totals well ahead of pace.
Multiple spring outbreaks, including EF4 events and widespread Midwest activity, produced above-average monthly counts in March and April. With the climatological peak largely complete, remaining summer and fall contributions—typically 200–400 additional tornadoes—make crossing 1,250 the most probable outcome under current conditions. Trader consensus, reflected in the steep probability curve favoring the top bracket, incorporates this verified year-to-date surplus and the absence of major suppressing factors such as persistent drought or unfavorable large-scale patterns.
Upcoming SPC monthly summaries and continued verification of preliminary reports will provide the next key data points for refining totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Wolumen
$81,752Data zakończenia
Jan 10, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong early-season activity has positioned the 1250+ outcome as the clear market leader at 85.5%.** As of mid-August 2026, confirmed U.S. tornadoes stand near 1,100–1,124 according to NOAA Storm Prediction Center and Wikipedia tracking, already approaching or exceeding typical full-year averages of roughly 1,200–1,300. Illinois alone has contributed an unusually high share, with over 200 reports through July, far above its climatological norm and driving national totals well ahead of pace. Multiple spring outbreaks, including EF4 events and widespread Midwest activity, produced above-average monthly counts in March and April. With the climatological peak largely complete, remaining summer and fall contributions—typically 200–400 additional tornadoes—make crossing 1,250 the most probable outcome under current conditions. Trader consensus, reflected in the steep probability curve favoring the top bracket, incorporates this verified year-to-date surplus and the absence of major suppressing factors such as persistent drought or unfavorable large-scale patterns. Upcoming SPC monthly summaries and continued verification of preliminary reports will provide the next key data points for refining totals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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