Incumbent Mike Quigley's commanding 65.5% victory in the March 17 Democratic primary has solidified trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party in the IL-05 House race, driven by the district's D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Solid Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. The North Side Chicago seat, with its highly educated electorate, has delivered Quigley consistent 69-71% general election margins over multiple cycles against repeat challenger Tom Hanson, who won the GOP nomination with 71.9% but underperformed historically. Absent polling, markets reflect incumbency advantages and weak Republican performance. Upsets would require a major scandal, Quigley health event, or extreme national midterm Republican wave before the November 3 general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIL-05 House Election Winner
IL-05 House Election Winner
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,244 Wol.
95%
Republican Party
$1,491 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Quigley's commanding 65.5% victory in the March 17 Democratic primary has solidified trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party in the IL-05 House race, driven by the district's D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Solid Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. The North Side Chicago seat, with its highly educated electorate, has delivered Quigley consistent 69-71% general election margins over multiple cycles against repeat challenger Tom Hanson, who won the GOP nomination with 71.9% but underperformed historically. Absent polling, markets reflect incumbency advantages and weak Republican performance. Upsets would require a major scandal, Quigley health event, or extreme national midterm Republican wave before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Wolumen
$4,734Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Quigley's commanding 65.5% victory in the March 17 Democratic primary has solidified trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party in the IL-05 House race, driven by the district's D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Solid Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. The North Side Chicago seat, with its highly educated electorate, has delivered Quigley consistent 69-71% general election margins over multiple cycles against repeat challenger Tom Hanson, who won the GOP nomination with 71.9% but underperformed historically. Absent polling, markets reflect incumbency advantages and weak Republican performance. Upsets would require a major scandal, Quigley health event, or extreme national midterm Republican wave before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$4,734Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Mike Quigley's commanding 65.5% victory in the March 17 Democratic primary has solidified trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party in the IL-05 House race, driven by the district's D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Solid Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. The North Side Chicago seat, with its highly educated electorate, has delivered Quigley consistent 69-71% general election margins over multiple cycles against repeat challenger Tom Hanson, who won the GOP nomination with 71.9% but underperformed historically. Absent polling, markets reflect incumbency advantages and weak Republican performance. Upsets would require a major scandal, Quigley health event, or extreme national midterm Republican wave before the November 3 general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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