Internal power struggles in Iran following the 2026 war, Khamenei's assassination, and subsequent leadership transitions have fueled trader attention to coup risks, though market odds remain low. Hardline factions issued public warnings in July 2026 about potential coups amid disputes over a U.S. truce and succession, with accusations directed at figures including Ghalibaf and Pezeshkian regarding influence over Mojtaba Khamenei. These tensions reflect ongoing factional competition within Iran's security apparatus and political institutions rather than coordinated military action. Traders assign limited probability to a widely reported coup attempt by year-end, citing structural barriers such as regime cohesion, military loyalty patterns, and limited external triggers in the current diplomatic environment. Scheduled leadership or policy announcements could still shift assessments if they intensify internal divisions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$2,122,592 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
December 31
9%
$2,122,592 Wol.
December 31
$81,367 Wol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles in Iran following the 2026 war, Khamenei's assassination, and subsequent leadership transitions have fueled trader attention to coup risks, though market odds remain low. Hardline factions issued public warnings in July 2026 about potential coups amid disputes over a U.S. truce and succession, with accusations directed at figures including Ghalibaf and Pezeshkian regarding influence over Mojtaba Khamenei. These tensions reflect ongoing factional competition within Iran's security apparatus and political institutions rather than coordinated military action. Traders assign limited probability to a widely reported coup attempt by year-end, citing structural barriers such as regime cohesion, military loyalty patterns, and limited external triggers in the current diplomatic environment. Scheduled leadership or policy announcements could still shift assessments if they intensify internal divisions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,122,592Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles in Iran following the 2026 war, Khamenei's assassination, and subsequent leadership transitions have fueled trader attention to coup risks, though market odds remain low. Hardline factions issued public warnings in July 2026 about potential coups amid disputes over a U.S. truce and succession, with accusations directed at figures including Ghalibaf and Pezeshkian regarding influence over Mojtaba Khamenei. These tensions reflect ongoing factional competition within Iran's security apparatus and political institutions rather than coordinated military action. Traders assign limited probability to a widely reported coup attempt by year-end, citing structural barriers such as regime cohesion, military loyalty patterns, and limited external triggers in the current diplomatic environment. Scheduled leadership or policy announcements could still shift assessments if they intensify internal divisions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$2,122,592Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Internal power struggles in Iran following the 2026 war, Khamenei's assassination, and subsequent leadership transitions have fueled trader attention to coup risks, though market odds remain low. Hardline factions issued public warnings in July 2026 about potential coups amid disputes over a U.S. truce and succession, with accusations directed at figures including Ghalibaf and Pezeshkian regarding influence over Mojtaba Khamenei. These tensions reflect ongoing factional competition within Iran's security apparatus and political institutions rather than coordinated military action. Traders assign limited probability to a widely reported coup attempt by year-end, citing structural barriers such as regime cohesion, military loyalty patterns, and limited external triggers in the current diplomatic environment. Scheduled leadership or policy announcements could still shift assessments if they intensify internal divisions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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