Ongoing regional tensions with Iran continue to shape trader assessments of near-term Israeli airspace restrictions, following the breakdown of a US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026. Israeli airspace has opened and closed multiple times amid prior missile exchanges and strikes, with the European Union Aviation Safety Agency maintaining advisories on related regional risks through August. Airlines remain cautious about Tel Aviv operations despite current openness, reflecting persistent security volatility. Key upcoming factors include any further Iranian retaliation or diplomatic signals that could prompt temporary closures for civilian traffic. Market pricing reflects trader views on the likelihood of such measures before specific resolution dates amid these fluid developments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$27,279,173 Wol.
Jul 14, 2026
August 31
4%
September 30
11%
$27,279,173 Wol.
August 31
$1,246,867 Wol.
4%
September 30
$426 Wol.
11%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran continue to shape trader assessments of near-term Israeli airspace restrictions, following the breakdown of a US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026. Israeli airspace has opened and closed multiple times amid prior missile exchanges and strikes, with the European Union Aviation Safety Agency maintaining advisories on related regional risks through August. Airlines remain cautious about Tel Aviv operations despite current openness, reflecting persistent security volatility. Key upcoming factors include any further Iranian retaliation or diplomatic signals that could prompt temporary closures for civilian traffic. Market pricing reflects trader views on the likelihood of such measures before specific resolution dates amid these fluid developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Wolumen
$27,279,173Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran continue to shape trader assessments of near-term Israeli airspace restrictions, following the breakdown of a US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026. Israeli airspace has opened and closed multiple times amid prior missile exchanges and strikes, with the European Union Aviation Safety Agency maintaining advisories on related regional risks through August. Airlines remain cautious about Tel Aviv operations despite current openness, reflecting persistent security volatility. Key upcoming factors include any further Iranian retaliation or diplomatic signals that could prompt temporary closures for civilian traffic. Market pricing reflects trader views on the likelihood of such measures before specific resolution dates amid these fluid developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$27,279,173Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions with Iran continue to shape trader assessments of near-term Israeli airspace restrictions, following the breakdown of a US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026. Israeli airspace has opened and closed multiple times amid prior missile exchanges and strikes, with the European Union Aviation Safety Agency maintaining advisories on related regional risks through August. Airlines remain cautious about Tel Aviv operations despite current openness, reflecting persistent security volatility. Key upcoming factors include any further Iranian retaliation or diplomatic signals that could prompt temporary closures for civilian traffic. Market pricing reflects trader views on the likelihood of such measures before specific resolution dates amid these fluid developments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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