As president since mid-2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity under Article 84 that bars criminal prosecution except for insurrection or treason through his term ending in 2030. This protection has prompted courts to indefinitely suspend all prior proceedings on charges including election-law violations and graft allegations, while the Democratic Party advances special-counsel legislation that could cancel existing indictments. Recent diplomatic meetings with U.S. and Chinese officials, combined with the absence of new warrants or successful impeachment motions from opposition parties, have kept arrest risks minimal through the end of 2026. Traders therefore assign an 89.5 percent probability that no detention will occur before the market’s December 31, 2026 resolution date.