**Forecast consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models points to an overnight minimum of 24–25°C on September 3 under northwesterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers.** This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 25°C (46.5%), 26°C (22.5%), and 24°C (17.5%). Early September climatology for Hong Kong features typical daily lows of 24–26°C amid high humidity and sea-surface temperatures near 28–29°C. A weakening tropical cyclone (Sadul) and interaction with the northeast monsoon have sustained northwesterly winds of 4–5 on the Beaufort scale, promoting modest advection of slightly cooler continental air while limiting radiative cooling through cloud cover and light precipitation. Official HKO guidance issued September 1 explicitly lists a 25–30°C range for September 3, with most numerical guidance (including detailed hourly runs) showing minima of 24–25°C around dawn. Recent model runs have remained stable over the past 24–48 hours, with no sharp revisions that would shift probabilities toward warmer or cooler extremes. Traders therefore price the 24–26°C cluster highest because it matches both the official forecast envelope and historical analogs for similar post-typhoon northwest-flow regimes. Lower-probability outcomes below 23°C or above 27°C would require unexpected clear skies or stronger cold-air advection, neither of which current guidance supports.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 3?
25°C 45%
26°C 23%
24°C 18%
27°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 3, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
4%
23°C
6%
24°C
18%
25°C
45%
26°C
23%
27°C
10%
28°C
5%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
8%
25°C 45%
26°C 23%
24°C 18%
27°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 3, 2026
20°C or below
$100 Wol.
1%
21°C
$100 Wol.
1%
22°C
$213 Wol.
4%
23°C
$0 Wol.
6%
24°C
$11 Wol.
18%
25°C
$702 Wol.
45%
26°C
$0 Wol.
23%
27°C
$352 Wol.
10%
28°C
$50 Wol.
5%
29°C
$100 Wol.
1%
30°C or higher
$100 Wol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Forecast consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models points to an overnight minimum of 24–25°C on September 3 under northwesterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers.** This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 25°C (46.5%), 26°C (22.5%), and 24°C (17.5%).
Early September climatology for Hong Kong features typical daily lows of 24–26°C amid high humidity and sea-surface temperatures near 28–29°C. A weakening tropical cyclone (Sadul) and interaction with the northeast monsoon have sustained northwesterly winds of 4–5 on the Beaufort scale, promoting modest advection of slightly cooler continental air while limiting radiative cooling through cloud cover and light precipitation. Official HKO guidance issued September 1 explicitly lists a 25–30°C range for September 3, with most numerical guidance (including detailed hourly runs) showing minima of 24–25°C around dawn.
Recent model runs have remained stable over the past 24–48 hours, with no sharp revisions that would shift probabilities toward warmer or cooler extremes. Traders therefore price the 24–26°C cluster highest because it matches both the official forecast envelope and historical analogs for similar post-typhoon northwest-flow regimes. Lower-probability outcomes below 23°C or above 27°C would require unexpected clear skies or stronger cold-air advection, neither of which current guidance supports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,728Data zakończenia
Sep 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Forecast consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models points to an overnight minimum of 24–25°C on September 3 under northwesterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers.** This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 25°C (46.5%), 26°C (22.5%), and 24°C (17.5%).
Early September climatology for Hong Kong features typical daily lows of 24–26°C amid high humidity and sea-surface temperatures near 28–29°C. A weakening tropical cyclone (Sadul) and interaction with the northeast monsoon have sustained northwesterly winds of 4–5 on the Beaufort scale, promoting modest advection of slightly cooler continental air while limiting radiative cooling through cloud cover and light precipitation. Official HKO guidance issued September 1 explicitly lists a 25–30°C range for September 3, with most numerical guidance (including detailed hourly runs) showing minima of 24–25°C around dawn.
Recent model runs have remained stable over the past 24–48 hours, with no sharp revisions that would shift probabilities toward warmer or cooler extremes. Traders therefore price the 24–26°C cluster highest because it matches both the official forecast envelope and historical analogs for similar post-typhoon northwest-flow regimes. Lower-probability outcomes below 23°C or above 27°C would require unexpected clear skies or stronger cold-air advection, neither of which current guidance supports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$1,728Data zakończenia
Sep 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models points to an overnight minimum of 24–25°C on September 3 under northwesterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers.** This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 25°C (46.5%), 26°C (22.5%), and 24°C (17.5%). Early September climatology for Hong Kong features typical daily lows of 24–26°C amid high humidity and sea-surface temperatures near 28–29°C. A weakening tropical cyclone (Sadul) and interaction with the northeast monsoon have sustained northwesterly winds of 4–5 on the Beaufort scale, promoting modest advection of slightly cooler continental air while limiting radiative cooling through cloud cover and light precipitation. Official HKO guidance issued September 1 explicitly lists a 25–30°C range for September 3, with most numerical guidance (including detailed hourly runs) showing minima of 24–25°C around dawn. Recent model runs have remained stable over the past 24–48 hours, with no sharp revisions that would shift probabilities toward warmer or cooler extremes. Traders therefore price the 24–26°C cluster highest because it matches both the official forecast envelope and historical analogs for similar post-typhoon northwest-flow regimes. Lower-probability outcomes below 23°C or above 27°C would require unexpected clear skies or stronger cold-air advection, neither of which current guidance supports.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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