**Trader sentiment for Shanghai’s June 18 lowest temperature centers on current forecast consensus pointing to overnight minima of 23–24 °C.** Ensemble guidance from major meteorological centers shows a stable subtropical air mass with persistent cloud cover and high humidity limiting radiative cooling, keeping the expected low near the upper end of the June climatological range (historical averages 20–22 °C). Recent model runs exhibit narrow spread around this value, with daytime highs near 28–30 °C supporting only modest nocturnal drops. The 40 % market-implied probability on 24 °C and 23.5 % on 23 °C reflect traders’ assessment that these thresholds align most closely with the latest deterministic and ensemble outputs, while lower probabilities on 22 °C or below indicate limited likelihood of stronger cooling from maritime air intrusions or clearer skies. Official station data (typically calibrated to Shanghai’s main observing site) will resolve the market, and any last-minute shifts in steering patterns or precipitation timing could adjust the minimum by 1–2 °C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Shanghai on June 18?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on June 18?
24°C 40%
23°C 24%
22°C 10.0%
25°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 18, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
7%
22°C
10%
23°C
24%
24°C
40%
25°C
8%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 40%
23°C 24%
22°C 10.0%
25°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 18, 2026
19°C or below
$882 Wol.
<1%
20°C
$362 Wol.
1%
21°C
$22 Wol.
7%
22°C
$143 Wol.
10%
23°C
$564 Wol.
24%
24°C
$165 Wol.
40%
25°C
$438 Wol.
8%
26°C
$287 Wol.
1%
27°C
$32 Wol.
1%
28°C
$122 Wol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$0 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Shanghai’s June 18 lowest temperature centers on current forecast consensus pointing to overnight minima of 23–24 °C.** Ensemble guidance from major meteorological centers shows a stable subtropical air mass with persistent cloud cover and high humidity limiting radiative cooling, keeping the expected low near the upper end of the June climatological range (historical averages 20–22 °C). Recent model runs exhibit narrow spread around this value, with daytime highs near 28–30 °C supporting only modest nocturnal drops.
The 40 % market-implied probability on 24 °C and 23.5 % on 23 °C reflect traders’ assessment that these thresholds align most closely with the latest deterministic and ensemble outputs, while lower probabilities on 22 °C or below indicate limited likelihood of stronger cooling from maritime air intrusions or clearer skies. Official station data (typically calibrated to Shanghai’s main observing site) will resolve the market, and any last-minute shifts in steering patterns or precipitation timing could adjust the minimum by 1–2 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$3,016Data zakończenia
Jun 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Shanghai’s June 18 lowest temperature centers on current forecast consensus pointing to overnight minima of 23–24 °C.** Ensemble guidance from major meteorological centers shows a stable subtropical air mass with persistent cloud cover and high humidity limiting radiative cooling, keeping the expected low near the upper end of the June climatological range (historical averages 20–22 °C). Recent model runs exhibit narrow spread around this value, with daytime highs near 28–30 °C supporting only modest nocturnal drops.
The 40 % market-implied probability on 24 °C and 23.5 % on 23 °C reflect traders’ assessment that these thresholds align most closely with the latest deterministic and ensemble outputs, while lower probabilities on 22 °C or below indicate limited likelihood of stronger cooling from maritime air intrusions or clearer skies. Official station data (typically calibrated to Shanghai’s main observing site) will resolve the market, and any last-minute shifts in steering patterns or precipitation timing could adjust the minimum by 1–2 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$3,016Data zakończenia
Jun 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Shanghai’s June 18 lowest temperature centers on current forecast consensus pointing to overnight minima of 23–24 °C.** Ensemble guidance from major meteorological centers shows a stable subtropical air mass with persistent cloud cover and high humidity limiting radiative cooling, keeping the expected low near the upper end of the June climatological range (historical averages 20–22 °C). Recent model runs exhibit narrow spread around this value, with daytime highs near 28–30 °C supporting only modest nocturnal drops. The 40 % market-implied probability on 24 °C and 23.5 % on 23 °C reflect traders’ assessment that these thresholds align most closely with the latest deterministic and ensemble outputs, while lower probabilities on 22 °C or below indicate limited likelihood of stronger cooling from maritime air intrusions or clearer skies. Official station data (typically calibrated to Shanghai’s main observing site) will resolve the market, and any last-minute shifts in steering patterns or precipitation timing could adjust the minimum by 1–2 °C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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