Traders are concentrating bets on a Tokyo minimum temperature of 23–24°C for August 13 because official short-range guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting model runs point to overnight lows in that narrow band under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers. These conditions limit radiational cooling while the urban heat island effect and high humidity keep temperatures from dropping further. August climatology in Tokyo shows typical lows near 24°C, and current forecasts align closely with that baseline without signals of stronger advection or clear skies that would allow deeper cooling. Upcoming evening model updates and any revisions to the precipitation outlook represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities before the market resolves.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?
24°C 84%
23°C 7%
22°C 6%
21°C <1%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 13, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
6%
23°C
14%
24°C
84%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 84%
23°C 7%
22°C 6%
21°C <1%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 13, 2026
18°C or below
$292 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$297 Wol.
<1%
20°C
$393 Wol.
1%
21°C
$444 Wol.
1%
22°C
$494 Wol.
6%
23°C
$1,123 Wol.
14%
24°C
$1,371 Wol.
84%
25°C
$1,072 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$339 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$322 Wol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$292 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are concentrating bets on a Tokyo minimum temperature of 23–24°C for August 13 because official short-range guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting model runs point to overnight lows in that narrow band under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers. These conditions limit radiational cooling while the urban heat island effect and high humidity keep temperatures from dropping further. August climatology in Tokyo shows typical lows near 24°C, and current forecasts align closely with that baseline without signals of stronger advection or clear skies that would allow deeper cooling. Upcoming evening model updates and any revisions to the precipitation outlook represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities before the market resolves.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$6,440Data zakończenia
Aug 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are concentrating bets on a Tokyo minimum temperature of 23–24°C for August 13 because official short-range guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting model runs point to overnight lows in that narrow band under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers. These conditions limit radiational cooling while the urban heat island effect and high humidity keep temperatures from dropping further. August climatology in Tokyo shows typical lows near 24°C, and current forecasts align closely with that baseline without signals of stronger advection or clear skies that would allow deeper cooling. Upcoming evening model updates and any revisions to the precipitation outlook represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities before the market resolves.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$6,440Data zakończenia
Aug 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are concentrating bets on a Tokyo minimum temperature of 23–24°C for August 13 because official short-range guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting model runs point to overnight lows in that narrow band under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers. These conditions limit radiational cooling while the urban heat island effect and high humidity keep temperatures from dropping further. August climatology in Tokyo shows typical lows near 24°C, and current forecasts align closely with that baseline without signals of stronger advection or clear skies that would allow deeper cooling. Upcoming evening model updates and any revisions to the precipitation outlook represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities before the market resolves.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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