**Trader consensus centers on a highest temperature of 86-89°F in NYC on August 12, reflecting NWS and ensemble model guidance for mostly sunny conditions with a high near 84-87°F amid a warmer-than-average August pattern.** Official National Weather Service forecasts issued August 10 project a high near 84°F for the day, driven by light west-to-northwest winds, moderate humidity, and limited cloud cover following overnight lows in the mid-70s. This aligns with Central Park climatology, where the August average high is 83°F (1991-2020 baseline). Recent monthly outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center indicate a 40-50% chance of above-normal temperatures across the region, consistent with broader 2026 summer warmth that has featured multiple 90°F+ days earlier in the season. Model runs show modest spread, with some guidance (including private-sector updates) supporting peaks in the upper 80s due to stronger daytime heating or slight steering shifts, while thunderstorm chances remain low enough not to cap temperatures significantly. The market distribution—41.5% on 86-87°F and 31.5% on 88-89°F—captures this range of outcomes, with lower-probability tails for 90°F+ reflecting historical rarity for mid-August without stronger high-pressure dominance or southerly flow. Traders are weighting the most recent deterministic and ensemble forecasts heavily, given the short lead time before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in NYC on August 12?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 12?
86-87°F 44%
88-89°F 33%
84-85°F 20%
90-91°F 5%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
3%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
44%
88-89°F
33%
90-91°F
5%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 44%
88-89°F 33%
84-85°F 20%
90-91°F 5%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
79°F or below
$138 Wol.
1%
80-81°F
$10 Wol.
<1%
82-83°F
$59 Wol.
3%
84-85°F
$678 Wol.
20%
86-87°F
$191 Wol.
44%
88-89°F
$530 Wol.
33%
90-91°F
$235 Wol.
5%
92-93°F
$119 Wol.
2%
94-95°F
$143 Wol.
<1%
96-97°F
$48 Wol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$48 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a highest temperature of 86-89°F in NYC on August 12, reflecting NWS and ensemble model guidance for mostly sunny conditions with a high near 84-87°F amid a warmer-than-average August pattern.**
Official National Weather Service forecasts issued August 10 project a high near 84°F for the day, driven by light west-to-northwest winds, moderate humidity, and limited cloud cover following overnight lows in the mid-70s. This aligns with Central Park climatology, where the August average high is 83°F (1991-2020 baseline). Recent monthly outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center indicate a 40-50% chance of above-normal temperatures across the region, consistent with broader 2026 summer warmth that has featured multiple 90°F+ days earlier in the season.
Model runs show modest spread, with some guidance (including private-sector updates) supporting peaks in the upper 80s due to stronger daytime heating or slight steering shifts, while thunderstorm chances remain low enough not to cap temperatures significantly. The market distribution—41.5% on 86-87°F and 31.5% on 88-89°F—captures this range of outcomes, with lower-probability tails for 90°F+ reflecting historical rarity for mid-August without stronger high-pressure dominance or southerly flow. Traders are weighting the most recent deterministic and ensemble forecasts heavily, given the short lead time before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,201Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a highest temperature of 86-89°F in NYC on August 12, reflecting NWS and ensemble model guidance for mostly sunny conditions with a high near 84-87°F amid a warmer-than-average August pattern.**
Official National Weather Service forecasts issued August 10 project a high near 84°F for the day, driven by light west-to-northwest winds, moderate humidity, and limited cloud cover following overnight lows in the mid-70s. This aligns with Central Park climatology, where the August average high is 83°F (1991-2020 baseline). Recent monthly outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center indicate a 40-50% chance of above-normal temperatures across the region, consistent with broader 2026 summer warmth that has featured multiple 90°F+ days earlier in the season.
Model runs show modest spread, with some guidance (including private-sector updates) supporting peaks in the upper 80s due to stronger daytime heating or slight steering shifts, while thunderstorm chances remain low enough not to cap temperatures significantly. The market distribution—41.5% on 86-87°F and 31.5% on 88-89°F—captures this range of outcomes, with lower-probability tails for 90°F+ reflecting historical rarity for mid-August without stronger high-pressure dominance or southerly flow. Traders are weighting the most recent deterministic and ensemble forecasts heavily, given the short lead time before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,201Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on a highest temperature of 86-89°F in NYC on August 12, reflecting NWS and ensemble model guidance for mostly sunny conditions with a high near 84-87°F amid a warmer-than-average August pattern.** Official National Weather Service forecasts issued August 10 project a high near 84°F for the day, driven by light west-to-northwest winds, moderate humidity, and limited cloud cover following overnight lows in the mid-70s. This aligns with Central Park climatology, where the August average high is 83°F (1991-2020 baseline). Recent monthly outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center indicate a 40-50% chance of above-normal temperatures across the region, consistent with broader 2026 summer warmth that has featured multiple 90°F+ days earlier in the season. Model runs show modest spread, with some guidance (including private-sector updates) supporting peaks in the upper 80s due to stronger daytime heating or slight steering shifts, while thunderstorm chances remain low enough not to cap temperatures significantly. The market distribution—41.5% on 86-87°F and 31.5% on 88-89°F—captures this range of outcomes, with lower-probability tails for 90°F+ reflecting historical rarity for mid-August without stronger high-pressure dominance or southerly flow. Traders are weighting the most recent deterministic and ensemble forecasts heavily, given the short lead time before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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