Recent JMA forecasts for Tokyo on June 18 project a minimum near 19°C under cloudy conditions with scattered showers, yet trader consensus clusters tightly on 20–21°C implied probabilities exceeding 80% combined. This positioning reflects model spread in nocturnal radiative cooling rates, where partial cloud cover and urban heat island effects can elevate overnight lows above official guidance. El Niño-enhanced warmth across the western Pacific adds upward bias to ensembles, while precipitation timing remains the key variable that could shift outcomes by 1–2°C. Updated JMA and global model runs through June 17 will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on June 18?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 18?
21°C 43%
20°C 39%
22°C 10%
19°C 4.6%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 18, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
5%
20°C
39%
21°C
43%
22°C
10%
23°C
3%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
<1%
21°C 43%
20°C 39%
22°C 10%
19°C 4.6%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 18, 2026
15°C or below
$5 Wol.
<1%
16°C
$130 Wol.
<1%
17°C
$111 Wol.
1%
18°C
$11 Wol.
2%
19°C
$69 Wol.
5%
20°C
$111 Wol.
39%
21°C
$24 Wol.
43%
22°C
$1 Wol.
10%
23°C
$25 Wol.
3%
24°C
$0 Wol.
1%
25°C or higher
$0 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecasts for Tokyo on June 18 project a minimum near 19°C under cloudy conditions with scattered showers, yet trader consensus clusters tightly on 20–21°C implied probabilities exceeding 80% combined. This positioning reflects model spread in nocturnal radiative cooling rates, where partial cloud cover and urban heat island effects can elevate overnight lows above official guidance. El Niño-enhanced warmth across the western Pacific adds upward bias to ensembles, while precipitation timing remains the key variable that could shift outcomes by 1–2°C. Updated JMA and global model runs through June 17 will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$488Data zakończenia
Jun 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecasts for Tokyo on June 18 project a minimum near 19°C under cloudy conditions with scattered showers, yet trader consensus clusters tightly on 20–21°C implied probabilities exceeding 80% combined. This positioning reflects model spread in nocturnal radiative cooling rates, where partial cloud cover and urban heat island effects can elevate overnight lows above official guidance. El Niño-enhanced warmth across the western Pacific adds upward bias to ensembles, while precipitation timing remains the key variable that could shift outcomes by 1–2°C. Updated JMA and global model runs through June 17 will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$488Data zakończenia
Jun 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA forecasts for Tokyo on June 18 project a minimum near 19°C under cloudy conditions with scattered showers, yet trader consensus clusters tightly on 20–21°C implied probabilities exceeding 80% combined. This positioning reflects model spread in nocturnal radiative cooling rates, where partial cloud cover and urban heat island effects can elevate overnight lows above official guidance. El Niño-enhanced warmth across the western Pacific adds upward bias to ensembles, while precipitation timing remains the key variable that could shift outcomes by 1–2°C. Updated JMA and global model runs through June 17 will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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