Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate Tokyo's minimum temperature on September 13 will likely settle near 21–22°C, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. Light northerly winds, high humidity near 90%, and persistent overnight cloud cover are limiting radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure regime, preventing sharper drops seen earlier in the month. Numerical weather models show minor divergence in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression, which accounts for the close implied probabilities. Updated guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble runs expected overnight will clarify whether conditions favor the lower or higher end of this narrow range.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 13?
22°C 46%
21°C 41%
23°C 10%
19°C 5%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 13, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
5%
20°C
4%
21°C
41%
22°C
46%
23°C
10%
24°C
3%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 46%
21°C 41%
23°C 10%
19°C 5%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 13, 2026
17°C or below
$110 Wol.
<1%
18°C
$49 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$0 Wol.
5%
20°C
$96 Wol.
4%
21°C
$661 Wol.
41%
22°C
$598 Wol.
46%
23°C
$395 Wol.
10%
24°C
$143 Wol.
3%
25°C
$49 Wol.
1%
26°C
$49 Wol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$110 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate Tokyo's minimum temperature on September 13 will likely settle near 21–22°C, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. Light northerly winds, high humidity near 90%, and persistent overnight cloud cover are limiting radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure regime, preventing sharper drops seen earlier in the month. Numerical weather models show minor divergence in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression, which accounts for the close implied probabilities. Updated guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble runs expected overnight will clarify whether conditions favor the lower or higher end of this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,258Data zakończenia
Sep 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate Tokyo's minimum temperature on September 13 will likely settle near 21–22°C, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. Light northerly winds, high humidity near 90%, and persistent overnight cloud cover are limiting radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure regime, preventing sharper drops seen earlier in the month. Numerical weather models show minor divergence in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression, which accounts for the close implied probabilities. Updated guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble runs expected overnight will clarify whether conditions favor the lower or higher end of this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,258Data zakończenia
Sep 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate Tokyo's minimum temperature on September 13 will likely settle near 21–22°C, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. Light northerly winds, high humidity near 90%, and persistent overnight cloud cover are limiting radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure regime, preventing sharper drops seen earlier in the month. Numerical weather models show minor divergence in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression, which accounts for the close implied probabilities. Updated guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble runs expected overnight will clarify whether conditions favor the lower or higher end of this narrow range.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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