Forecast models from sources like ECMWF and ICON show Warsaw's overnight minimum on September 21 likely settling near 10–12°C under westerly flow, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit radiational cooling while advecting milder maritime air. This setup creates the tight market split between the 16°C+ and 10°C outcomes, as modest shifts in wind speed, timing of any clearing, or frontal passage could push the low several degrees either way. Historical September minima average around 10°C, but recent model runs highlight uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and precipitation efficiency, with traders weighting the balance between suppressed nighttime drops from clouds versus potential brief clearer spells allowing further cooling. Updated high-resolution guidance expected overnight will likely sharpen resolution criteria around the 9–11°C threshold.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 21?
16°C or higher 81%
6°C or below 49%
10°C 46%
12°C 39%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 21, 2026
6°C or below
49%
7°C
14%
8°C
17%
9°C
36%
10°C
38%
11°C
24%
12°C
39%
13°C
16%
14°C
14%
15°C
14%
16°C or higher
81%
16°C or higher 81%
6°C or below 49%
10°C 46%
12°C 39%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 21, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Wol.
49%
7°C
$0 Wol.
14%
8°C
$0 Wol.
17%
9°C
$0 Wol.
36%
10°C
$13 Wol.
38%
11°C
$0 Wol.
24%
12°C
$0 Wol.
39%
13°C
$0 Wol.
16%
14°C
$0 Wol.
14%
15°C
$0 Wol.
14%
16°C or higher
$0 Wol.
81%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like ECMWF and ICON show Warsaw's overnight minimum on September 21 likely settling near 10–12°C under westerly flow, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit radiational cooling while advecting milder maritime air. This setup creates the tight market split between the 16°C+ and 10°C outcomes, as modest shifts in wind speed, timing of any clearing, or frontal passage could push the low several degrees either way. Historical September minima average around 10°C, but recent model runs highlight uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and precipitation efficiency, with traders weighting the balance between suppressed nighttime drops from clouds versus potential brief clearer spells allowing further cooling. Updated high-resolution guidance expected overnight will likely sharpen resolution criteria around the 9–11°C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$13Data zakończenia
Sep 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like ECMWF and ICON show Warsaw's overnight minimum on September 21 likely settling near 10–12°C under westerly flow, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit radiational cooling while advecting milder maritime air. This setup creates the tight market split between the 16°C+ and 10°C outcomes, as modest shifts in wind speed, timing of any clearing, or frontal passage could push the low several degrees either way. Historical September minima average around 10°C, but recent model runs highlight uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and precipitation efficiency, with traders weighting the balance between suppressed nighttime drops from clouds versus potential brief clearer spells allowing further cooling. Updated high-resolution guidance expected overnight will likely sharpen resolution criteria around the 9–11°C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$13Data zakończenia
Sep 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources like ECMWF and ICON show Warsaw's overnight minimum on September 21 likely settling near 10–12°C under westerly flow, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit radiational cooling while advecting milder maritime air. This setup creates the tight market split between the 16°C+ and 10°C outcomes, as modest shifts in wind speed, timing of any clearing, or frontal passage could push the low several degrees either way. Historical September minima average around 10°C, but recent model runs highlight uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and precipitation efficiency, with traders weighting the balance between suppressed nighttime drops from clouds versus potential brief clearer spells allowing further cooling. Updated high-resolution guidance expected overnight will likely sharpen resolution criteria around the 9–11°C threshold.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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