Trader consensus on Polymarket, reflected in the 96% implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth, aligns with consensus forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and Philadelphia Fed projecting 1.9-2.5% real GDP expansion for the year. This outlook stems from resilient business investment in productivity-enhancing technologies, supportive fiscal measures, and steady consumer spending amid healthy household balance sheets, despite uneven growth and a moderating labor market. Official projections from mid-2026 consistently show positive annual growth well above zero. Tail risks include escalation of geopolitical conflicts driving energy price spikes, sharper-than-expected unemployment rises, or abrupt policy shifts that could tip the economy into contraction, though current data and leading indicators make such outcomes low-probability scenarios.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% szansa
$32,234 Wol.
$32,234 Wol.
Jan 28, 2027
4% szansa
$32,234 Wol.
$32,234 Wol.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket, reflected in the 96% implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth, aligns with consensus forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and Philadelphia Fed projecting 1.9-2.5% real GDP expansion for the year. This outlook stems from resilient business investment in productivity-enhancing technologies, supportive fiscal measures, and steady consumer spending amid healthy household balance sheets, despite uneven growth and a moderating labor market. Official projections from mid-2026 consistently show positive annual growth well above zero. Tail risks include escalation of geopolitical conflicts driving energy price spikes, sharper-than-expected unemployment rises, or abrupt policy shifts that could tip the economy into contraction, though current data and leading indicators make such outcomes low-probability scenarios.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$32,234Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket, reflected in the 96% implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth, aligns with consensus forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and Philadelphia Fed projecting 1.9-2.5% real GDP expansion for the year. This outlook stems from resilient business investment in productivity-enhancing technologies, supportive fiscal measures, and steady consumer spending amid healthy household balance sheets, despite uneven growth and a moderating labor market. Official projections from mid-2026 consistently show positive annual growth well above zero. Tail risks include escalation of geopolitical conflicts driving energy price spikes, sharper-than-expected unemployment rises, or abrupt policy shifts that could tip the economy into contraction, though current data and leading indicators make such outcomes low-probability scenarios.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Wolumen
$32,234Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket, reflected in the 96% implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth, aligns with consensus forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and Philadelphia Fed projecting 1.9-2.5% real GDP expansion for the year. This outlook stems from resilient business investment in productivity-enhancing technologies, supportive fiscal measures, and steady consumer spending amid healthy household balance sheets, despite uneven growth and a moderating labor market. Official projections from mid-2026 consistently show positive annual growth well above zero. Tail risks include escalation of geopolitical conflicts driving energy price spikes, sharper-than-expected unemployment rises, or abrupt policy shifts that could tip the economy into contraction, though current data and leading indicators make such outcomes low-probability scenarios.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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