Upcoming Knesset elections on October 27 keep probabilities for the next interior minister tightly bunched, as the post has remained vacant since Moshe Arbel’s 2025 resignation amid Shas’s coalition exit. Prime Minister Netanyahu faces High Court pressure to name a permanent successor before late October, yet any appointment is likely to follow coalition negotiations once results clarify the balance among Likud, Shas, Religious Zionism, and other partners. Traders price Israel Katz highest among named contenders, followed by Eli Cohen and Yariv Levin, reflecting their current cabinet roles and factional leverage, while the sizable share assigned to no appointment by February 28 captures uncertainty over post-election bargaining and possible delays.