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Politics·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Politics·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 98.2%

Sánchez - Spanish PM <1%

Putin - Russia President <1%

Abbas - President of Palestine <1%

Polymarket

$58,876,644 Wol.

Starmer - UK PM 98.2%

Sánchez - Spanish PM <1%

Putin - Russia President <1%

Abbas - President of Palestine <1%

Polymarket

$58,876,644 Wol.

Starmer - UK PM

$1,056,421 Wol.

98%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$217,768 Wol.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$3,906,816 Wol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$8,679,694 Wol.

<1%

Petro - Colombia President

$958,078 Wol.

<1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$12,022,445 Wol.

<1%

None before 2027

$6,510,689 Wol.

<1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$3,618,022 Wol.

<1%

Lecornu - France PM

$4,022,730 Wol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$156,352 Wol.

<1%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$1,170,792 Wol.

<1%

Macron - France President

$136,594 Wol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$141,807 Wol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$97,989 Wol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$135,197 Wol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$105,788 Wol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$124,652 Wol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$5,151,589 Wol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$3,123,837 Wol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$5,981,677 Wol.

<1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$127,963 Wol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$209,644 Wol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$1,086,350 Wol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$163,851 Wol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Gustavo Petro leads at 51.5% due to Colombia’s fixed presidential term ending with successor inauguration on August 7, 2026, after the May–June elections, creating a scheduled exit independent of approval ratings. Keir Starmer follows at 30.5% amid sustained negative favorability near –45, recent local election setbacks, and internal Labour pressure for resignation that could accelerate departure before the 2029 deadline. Díaz-Canel sits at 7.8% amid Cuba’s deepening economic strains and reported U.S. sanctions, though centralized control limits near-term removal odds. Remaining candidates trade below 2% as their institutional positions, term structures, or coalition dynamics show fewer immediate catalysts for ouster before 2027. Trader pricing reflects these structural timelines and polling-driven volatility rather than guaranteed outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$58,876,644
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Gustavo Petro leads at 51.5% due to Colombia’s fixed presidential term ending with successor inauguration on August 7, 2026, after the May–June elections, creating a scheduled exit independent of approval ratings. Keir Starmer follows at 30.5% amid sustained negative favorability near –45, recent local election setbacks, and internal Labour pressure for resignation that could accelerate departure before the 2029 deadline. Díaz-Canel sits at 7.8% amid Cuba’s deepening economic strains and reported U.S. sanctions, though centralized control limits near-term removal odds. Remaining candidates trade below 2% as their institutional positions, term structures, or coalition dynamics show fewer immediate catalysts for ouster before 2027. Trader pricing reflects these structural timelines and polling-driven volatility rather than guaranteed outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$58,876,644
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Często zadawane pytania

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 24 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Starmer - UK PM" z 98%, za nim "Sánchez - Spanish PM" z 0%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 98¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 98% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" wygenerował $58.9 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Apr 27, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)", przeglądaj 24 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" jest "Starmer - UK PM" z 98%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 98% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Sánchez - Spanish PM" z 0%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.