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Polityka·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Polityka·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 44%

Petro - Colombia President 37%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.6%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.1%

Polymarket

$358,169 Wol.

Starmer - UK PM 44%

Petro - Colombia President 37%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.6%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.1%

Polymarket

$358,169 Wol.

Starmer - UK PM

$19,925 Wol.

44%

Petro - Colombia President

$18,555 Wol.

37%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$11,954 Wol.

10%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$15,974 Wol.

1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,491 Wol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$19,804 Wol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$16,698 Wol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$15,936 Wol.

1%

None before 2027

$19,047 Wol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,499 Wol.

1%

Macron - France President

$12,124 Wol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,186 Wol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,315 Wol.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,663 Wol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$12,528 Wol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,255 Wol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,670 Wol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,495 Wol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,201 Wol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,338 Wol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,184 Wol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,324 Wol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,155 Wol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,850 Wol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent UK political developments have positioned Keir Starmer as the frontrunner in trader assessments, driven by sharply negative favorability ratings near -46 and mounting internal Labour pressure following heavy losses in recent local and devolved elections. Speculation over potential leadership challenges or an early general election has amplified perceived risks of his departure before 2027. In Colombia, Gustavo Petro's constitutional ineligibility for reelection and the scheduled May 31, 2026 presidential vote create a firm timeline for transition by August, sustaining his elevated market share. Miguel Díaz-Canel faces comparatively lower odds amid ongoing US diplomatic tensions and domestic economic strains, though no immediate exit mechanism has crystallized. Most other listed leaders show minimal movement due to longer constitutional terms or stable governing majorities, with the slim probability assigned to no departures before 2027 underscoring broad trader expectations of at least one change.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$358,169
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent UK political developments have positioned Keir Starmer as the frontrunner in trader assessments, driven by sharply negative favorability ratings near -46 and mounting internal Labour pressure following heavy losses in recent local and devolved elections. Speculation over potential leadership challenges or an early general election has amplified perceived risks of his departure before 2027. In Colombia, Gustavo Petro's constitutional ineligibility for reelection and the scheduled May 31, 2026 presidential vote create a firm timeline for transition by August, sustaining his elevated market share. Miguel Díaz-Canel faces comparatively lower odds amid ongoing US diplomatic tensions and domestic economic strains, though no immediate exit mechanism has crystallized. Most other listed leaders show minimal movement due to longer constitutional terms or stable governing majorities, with the slim probability assigned to no departures before 2027 underscoring broad trader expectations of at least one change.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$358,169
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Często zadawane pytania

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 24 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Starmer - UK PM" z 45%, za nim "Petro - Colombia President" z 37%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 45¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 45% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" wygenerował $358.2K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Apr 27, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)", przeglądaj 24 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" jest "Starmer - UK PM" z 45%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 45% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Petro - Colombia President" z 37%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.