The near-certain trader consensus that Pete Hegseth will remain Secretary of Defense through May 31 stems from his recent Senate confirmation and the lack of any major political, legal, or personal developments that would trigger an abrupt exit in the narrow remaining window. With the administration's early-term priorities focused on defense policy implementation rather than personnel shifts, no committee holds, confirmation-related scrutiny, or public statements from White House or Pentagon officials have signaled instability. Historical patterns show cabinet secretaries rarely depart within weeks of taking office absent scandals or health events. Still, late-breaking allegations, a sudden resignation announcement, or an unforeseen medical issue could theoretically move the outcome before the resolution date.