Russia’s Supreme Court upheld the removal of Yabloko’s federal party list from the September 20, 2026, State Duma ballot on August 17 after rejecting its appeal, following an earlier August 10 ruling prompted by a Rodina party lawsuit over campaign materials and alleged violations. This exclusion prevents the liberal, anti-war party from competing in the proportional representation component where the 5% threshold applies. State-aligned polls had consistently placed Yabloko well below viability, while independent surveys noted modest recent gains in urban areas before the decision. The final court outcome leaves no procedural path for the party list to qualify, anchoring trader consensus on a “No” resolution. Further appeals to the Constitutional Court or supervisory review remain possible but face steep institutional barriers with limited time before the vote.