Recent polling in Girona projects PSOE maintaining a narrow lead in vote share ahead of the November 29 general election, consistent with the 53.5% implied probability traders assign to the socialists winning the constituency. ERC and Junts trail closely behind amid ongoing competition within the pro-independence bloc, while Vox shows gains but remains further back and PP trails. A PP-Vox agreement to consolidate right-of-center Senate candidacies in the province could influence conservative vote flows. ERC’s recent internal primaries selecting Teresa Jordà as lead candidate and broader national trends in Catalonia keep the race fragmented. Multi-party dynamics and shifting turnout among key voting blocs sustain the tight positioning reflected in current market prices.