SALF (Se Acabó La Fiesta), led by MEP Alvise Pérez, has secured ballot access in 46 provinces for Spain’s November 29 snap general election after gathering required signatures, building on its 2024 European Parliament success. National polling averages, however, place the party at 1.7–2.2 percent—well below the 3 percent threshold needed in most constituencies under the D’Hondt system. Seat projections from multiple models assign SALF zero seats, with only marginal simulated chances in large provinces such as Madrid. Its support remains dispersed, and recent regional contests produced no congressional representation. Traders’ 86 percent probability against any seat reflects these consistent polling levels and structural barriers rather than any sudden shift in the final weeks.