Turkey’s ruling coalition holds 321 of 600 parliamentary seats, short of the 360-vote threshold needed to advance a new constitution via referendum or early-election renewal under Article 116. While AKP figures including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have reiterated calls for a civilian charter in 2026-2027 and commissions continue preparatory work, no draft legislation, committee markup, or floor vote has materialized by mid-September. Recent statements instead emphasize using existing constitutional provisions to reset presidential term limits without a full rewrite. Traders therefore assign only an 8.5 percent chance that meaningful movement on a new constitution occurs before year-end, reflecting the gap between long-standing rhetoric and the absence of required legislative consensus or procedural steps.