The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on May 13, 2026, in a narrow 54-45 vote—with Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman providing the sole crossover—resolving Polymarket's multi-outcome market to "No" across all options, as no Fed rate cut, U.S.-Iran ceasefire, announcement of a new Iranian Supreme Leader, or U.S. extraterrestrial disclosure preceded it. This followed Senate approval of Warsh's 14-year Board term on May 12 (51-45), cloture on May 11 (49-44), and Banking Committee advancement on April 29 (13-11 party-line), reflecting tight Republican control amid Democratic concerns over Fed independence. President Trump's nominee, a former Fed Governor, now prepares to succeed Jerome Powell amid rising inflation pressures, with his first FOMC meeting looming.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhat will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$736,030 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
US x Iran Ceasefire
Yes
Fed Rate Cut
No
New Supreme Leader of Iran
Yes
US Confirms Aliens Exist
No
$736,030 Wol.
US x Iran Ceasefire
$82,743 Wol.
Yes
Fed Rate Cut
$276,835 Wol.
No
New Supreme Leader of Iran
$0 Wol.
Yes
US Confirms Aliens Exist
$376,452 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
Both rate cuts resulting from scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and emergency rate cuts will qualify as decreasing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
An announcement of a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader will qualify regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate and the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on May 13, 2026, in a narrow 54-45 vote—with Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman providing the sole crossover—resolving Polymarket's multi-outcome market to "No" across all options, as no Fed rate cut, U.S.-Iran ceasefire, announcement of a new Iranian Supreme Leader, or U.S. extraterrestrial disclosure preceded it. This followed Senate approval of Warsh's 14-year Board term on May 12 (51-45), cloture on May 11 (49-44), and Banking Committee advancement on April 29 (13-11 party-line), reflecting tight Republican control amid Democratic concerns over Fed independence. President Trump's nominee, a former Fed Governor, now prepares to succeed Jerome Powell amid rising inflation pressures, with his first FOMC meeting looming.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate and the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate and the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 4, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
Wolumen
$736,030Data zakończenia
Oct 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 4, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
Both rate cuts resulting from scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and emergency rate cuts will qualify as decreasing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
An announcement of a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader will qualify regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate and the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on May 13, 2026, in a narrow 54-45 vote—with Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman providing the sole crossover—resolving Polymarket's multi-outcome market to "No" across all options, as no Fed rate cut, U.S.-Iran ceasefire, announcement of a new Iranian Supreme Leader, or U.S. extraterrestrial disclosure preceded it. This followed Senate approval of Warsh's 14-year Board term on May 12 (51-45), cloture on May 11 (49-44), and Banking Committee advancement on April 29 (13-11 party-line), reflecting tight Republican control amid Democratic concerns over Fed independence. President Trump's nominee, a former Fed Governor, now prepares to succeed Jerome Powell amid rising inflation pressures, with his first FOMC meeting looming.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate and the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate and the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$736,030Data zakończenia
Oct 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 4, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on May 13, 2026, in a narrow 54-45 vote—with Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman providing the sole crossover—resolving Polymarket's multi-outcome market to "No" across all options, as no Fed rate cut, U.S.-Iran ceasefire, announcement of a new Iranian Supreme Leader, or U.S. extraterrestrial disclosure preceded it. This followed Senate approval of Warsh's 14-year Board term on May 12 (51-45), cloture on May 11 (49-44), and Banking Committee advancement on April 29 (13-11 party-line), reflecting tight Republican control amid Democratic concerns over Fed independence. President Trump's nominee, a former Fed Governor, now prepares to succeed Jerome Powell amid rising inflation pressures, with his first FOMC meeting looming.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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