The Iranian regime's continuity through leadership transition and sustained security control underpins traders' near-certain assessment that it will not collapse before May 31. Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, the Assembly of Experts swiftly installed Mojtaba Khamenei, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintained order amid prior protests and ongoing ceasefire negotiations. Recent Iranian proposals to dictate war terms and rebuild military infrastructure reflect institutional cohesion, consistent with U.S. intelligence assessments ruling out near-term regime change. With only fifteen days remaining, any shift would require improbable catalysts such as sudden leadership fractures, mass defections, or rapid escalation reversing the current stalemate.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCzy reżim irański upadnie do 31 maja?
Czy reżim irański upadnie do 31 maja?
Tak
$20,284,894 Wol.
$20,284,894 Wol.
May 31, 2026
Tak
$20,284,894 Wol.
$20,284,894 Wol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's continuity through leadership transition and sustained security control underpins traders' near-certain assessment that it will not collapse before May 31. Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, the Assembly of Experts swiftly installed Mojtaba Khamenei, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintained order amid prior protests and ongoing ceasefire negotiations. Recent Iranian proposals to dictate war terms and rebuild military infrastructure reflect institutional cohesion, consistent with U.S. intelligence assessments ruling out near-term regime change. With only fifteen days remaining, any shift would require improbable catalysts such as sudden leadership fractures, mass defections, or rapid escalation reversing the current stalemate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Wolumen
$20,284,894Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's continuity through leadership transition and sustained security control underpins traders' near-certain assessment that it will not collapse before May 31. Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, the Assembly of Experts swiftly installed Mojtaba Khamenei, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintained order amid prior protests and ongoing ceasefire negotiations. Recent Iranian proposals to dictate war terms and rebuild military infrastructure reflect institutional cohesion, consistent with U.S. intelligence assessments ruling out near-term regime change. With only fifteen days remaining, any shift would require improbable catalysts such as sudden leadership fractures, mass defections, or rapid escalation reversing the current stalemate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$20,286,981Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's continuity through leadership transition and sustained security control underpins traders' near-certain assessment that it will not collapse before May 31. Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, the Assembly of Experts swiftly installed Mojtaba Khamenei, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintained order amid prior protests and ongoing ceasefire negotiations. Recent Iranian proposals to dictate war terms and rebuild military infrastructure reflect institutional cohesion, consistent with U.S. intelligence assessments ruling out near-term regime change. With only fifteen days remaining, any shift would require improbable catalysts such as sudden leadership fractures, mass defections, or rapid escalation reversing the current stalemate.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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