Persistent absence of formal U.S.-Iran diplomatic relations since 1980, compounded by 2026 military exchanges including drone strikes on regional U.S. facilities and extended ceasefires, sustains trader consensus that embassy reopening remains improbable by year-end. Ongoing nuclear and peace talks mediated in Oman, Switzerland, and Pakistan have produced memoranda but no restoration of direct embassies or interests-section upgrades beyond Swiss protection in Tehran. Recent U.S. security alerts directing citizens to depart Iran and reduced staffing across Middle East posts further reflect unresolved tensions. A rapid normalization breakthrough in final-round negotiations could still shift outcomes before December 31, though historical precedent and current procedural barriers make such a reversal unlikely.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
5% szansa
$158,284 Wol.
$158,284 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% szansa
$158,284 Wol.
$158,284 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent absence of formal U.S.-Iran diplomatic relations since 1980, compounded by 2026 military exchanges including drone strikes on regional U.S. facilities and extended ceasefires, sustains trader consensus that embassy reopening remains improbable by year-end. Ongoing nuclear and peace talks mediated in Oman, Switzerland, and Pakistan have produced memoranda but no restoration of direct embassies or interests-section upgrades beyond Swiss protection in Tehran. Recent U.S. security alerts directing citizens to depart Iran and reduced staffing across Middle East posts further reflect unresolved tensions. A rapid normalization breakthrough in final-round negotiations could still shift outcomes before December 31, though historical precedent and current procedural barriers make such a reversal unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Wolumen
$158,284Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent absence of formal U.S.-Iran diplomatic relations since 1980, compounded by 2026 military exchanges including drone strikes on regional U.S. facilities and extended ceasefires, sustains trader consensus that embassy reopening remains improbable by year-end. Ongoing nuclear and peace talks mediated in Oman, Switzerland, and Pakistan have produced memoranda but no restoration of direct embassies or interests-section upgrades beyond Swiss protection in Tehran. Recent U.S. security alerts directing citizens to depart Iran and reduced staffing across Middle East posts further reflect unresolved tensions. A rapid normalization breakthrough in final-round negotiations could still shift outcomes before December 31, though historical precedent and current procedural barriers make such a reversal unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$158,284Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent absence of formal U.S.-Iran diplomatic relations since 1980, compounded by 2026 military exchanges including drone strikes on regional U.S. facilities and extended ceasefires, sustains trader consensus that embassy reopening remains improbable by year-end. Ongoing nuclear and peace talks mediated in Oman, Switzerland, and Pakistan have produced memoranda but no restoration of direct embassies or interests-section upgrades beyond Swiss protection in Tehran. Recent U.S. security alerts directing citizens to depart Iran and reduced staffing across Middle East posts further reflect unresolved tensions. A rapid normalization breakthrough in final-round negotiations could still shift outcomes before December 31, though historical precedent and current procedural barriers make such a reversal unlikely.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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