The Trump administration has repeatedly signaled through public statements and diplomatic actions that it does not seek to install Reza Pahlavi as Iran’s leader or pursue regime change, anchoring the 96% implied probability of “No.” President Trump has questioned Pahlavi’s domestic support inside Iran, while Vice President Vance confirmed in June 2026 that such an outcome is not U.S. policy. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum that month explicitly affirmed Iranian sovereignty and omitted any reference to opposition figures or transition arrangements. Administration officials have also sidelined Pahlavi in diplomatic contexts amid ongoing protests and military developments earlier in the year. Only an abrupt policy reversal or verifiable regime collapse before December 31 could still alter the outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUSA uznają Rezę Pahlaviego za przywódcę Iranu w 2026 roku?
USA uznają Rezę Pahlaviego za przywódcę Iranu w 2026 roku?
Tak
4% szansa
$627,299 Wol.
$627,299 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
4% szansa
$627,299 Wol.
$627,299 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration has repeatedly signaled through public statements and diplomatic actions that it does not seek to install Reza Pahlavi as Iran’s leader or pursue regime change, anchoring the 96% implied probability of “No.” President Trump has questioned Pahlavi’s domestic support inside Iran, while Vice President Vance confirmed in June 2026 that such an outcome is not U.S. policy. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum that month explicitly affirmed Iranian sovereignty and omitted any reference to opposition figures or transition arrangements. Administration officials have also sidelined Pahlavi in diplomatic contexts amid ongoing protests and military developments earlier in the year. Only an abrupt policy reversal or verifiable regime collapse before December 31 could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ET
Wolumen
$627,299Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration has repeatedly signaled through public statements and diplomatic actions that it does not seek to install Reza Pahlavi as Iran’s leader or pursue regime change, anchoring the 96% implied probability of “No.” President Trump has questioned Pahlavi’s domestic support inside Iran, while Vice President Vance confirmed in June 2026 that such an outcome is not U.S. policy. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum that month explicitly affirmed Iranian sovereignty and omitted any reference to opposition figures or transition arrangements. Administration officials have also sidelined Pahlavi in diplomatic contexts amid ongoing protests and military developments earlier in the year. Only an abrupt policy reversal or verifiable regime collapse before December 31 could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$627,299Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration has repeatedly signaled through public statements and diplomatic actions that it does not seek to install Reza Pahlavi as Iran’s leader or pursue regime change, anchoring the 96% implied probability of “No.” President Trump has questioned Pahlavi’s domestic support inside Iran, while Vice President Vance confirmed in June 2026 that such an outcome is not U.S. policy. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum that month explicitly affirmed Iranian sovereignty and omitted any reference to opposition figures or transition arrangements. Administration officials have also sidelined Pahlavi in diplomatic contexts amid ongoing protests and military developments earlier in the year. Only an abrupt policy reversal or verifiable regime collapse before December 31 could still alter the outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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