Trader consensus prices "No" at 91.5% for US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional endurance under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following Ali Khamenei's early-year assassination and swift Assembly of Experts transition. Amid the fragile April ceasefire in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war—strained by recent Iranian attacks and Tehran's demands for reparations as of May 11—Pahlavi urged abandonment of negotiations at the May 12 POLITICO Security Summit, yet the State Department shows no policy shift toward endorsing him, prioritizing military pressure, sanctions, and diplomatic talks. Absent regime collapse or explicit White House backing, significant barriers persist despite Pahlavi's exile advocacy.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUSA uznają Rezę Pahlaviego za przywódcę Iranu w 2026 roku?
USA uznają Rezę Pahlaviego za przywódcę Iranu w 2026 roku?
Tak
$578,896 Wol.
$578,896 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
$578,896 Wol.
$578,896 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 91.5% for US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional endurance under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following Ali Khamenei's early-year assassination and swift Assembly of Experts transition. Amid the fragile April ceasefire in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war—strained by recent Iranian attacks and Tehran's demands for reparations as of May 11—Pahlavi urged abandonment of negotiations at the May 12 POLITICO Security Summit, yet the State Department shows no policy shift toward endorsing him, prioritizing military pressure, sanctions, and diplomatic talks. Absent regime collapse or explicit White House backing, significant barriers persist despite Pahlavi's exile advocacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ET
Wolumen
$578,896Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 91.5% for US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional endurance under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following Ali Khamenei's early-year assassination and swift Assembly of Experts transition. Amid the fragile April ceasefire in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war—strained by recent Iranian attacks and Tehran's demands for reparations as of May 11—Pahlavi urged abandonment of negotiations at the May 12 POLITICO Security Summit, yet the State Department shows no policy shift toward endorsing him, prioritizing military pressure, sanctions, and diplomatic talks. Absent regime collapse or explicit White House backing, significant barriers persist despite Pahlavi's exile advocacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$578,896Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 91.5% for US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional endurance under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following Ali Khamenei's early-year assassination and swift Assembly of Experts transition. Amid the fragile April ceasefire in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war—strained by recent Iranian attacks and Tehran's demands for reparations as of May 11—Pahlavi urged abandonment of negotiations at the May 12 POLITICO Security Summit, yet the State Department shows no policy shift toward endorsing him, prioritizing military pressure, sanctions, and diplomatic talks. Absent regime collapse or explicit White House backing, significant barriers persist despite Pahlavi's exile advocacy.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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