US policy under the current administration shows no movement toward formal recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader, with President Trump publicly describing him as unlikely to assume power due to limited domestic backing inside the country. Ongoing US and Israeli military pressure on the Iranian regime, combined with Pahlavi's exile status and advocacy for transitional governance, has not translated into diplomatic acknowledgment or official statements endorsing him specifically. Recognition would require a major policy reversal not supported by current diplomatic posture or statements. Realistic scenarios that could still shift this include rapid regime collapse in which Pahlavi secures broad internal Iranian support and the administration adjusts its approach before year-end.