The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 conflict, including leadership transitions after the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent ceasefire, underpins traders' near-certain assessment that collapse will not occur by May 31. Security forces have suppressed earlier protest waves tied to economic pressures, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains institutional control and has begun rebuilding capabilities amid ongoing sanctions and regional tensions. With just two weeks left in the resolution window, no verified defections, mass uprisings, or breakdowns in authority have emerged to alter this trajectory. Although unforeseen escalations, leadership fractures, or renewed domestic unrest could theoretically intervene, current conditions show the regime consolidating power and dictating terms in diplomatic channels.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCzy reżim irański upadnie do 31 maja?
Czy reżim irański upadnie do 31 maja?
Tak
$20,862,843 Wol.
$20,862,843 Wol.
May 31, 2026
Tak
$20,862,843 Wol.
$20,862,843 Wol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 conflict, including leadership transitions after the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent ceasefire, underpins traders' near-certain assessment that collapse will not occur by May 31. Security forces have suppressed earlier protest waves tied to economic pressures, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains institutional control and has begun rebuilding capabilities amid ongoing sanctions and regional tensions. With just two weeks left in the resolution window, no verified defections, mass uprisings, or breakdowns in authority have emerged to alter this trajectory. Although unforeseen escalations, leadership fractures, or renewed domestic unrest could theoretically intervene, current conditions show the regime consolidating power and dictating terms in diplomatic channels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Wolumen
$20,862,843Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 conflict, including leadership transitions after the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent ceasefire, underpins traders' near-certain assessment that collapse will not occur by May 31. Security forces have suppressed earlier protest waves tied to economic pressures, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains institutional control and has begun rebuilding capabilities amid ongoing sanctions and regional tensions. With just two weeks left in the resolution window, no verified defections, mass uprisings, or breakdowns in authority have emerged to alter this trajectory. Although unforeseen escalations, leadership fractures, or renewed domestic unrest could theoretically intervene, current conditions show the regime consolidating power and dictating terms in diplomatic channels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$20,864,210Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 conflict, including leadership transitions after the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent ceasefire, underpins traders' near-certain assessment that collapse will not occur by May 31. Security forces have suppressed earlier protest waves tied to economic pressures, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains institutional control and has begun rebuilding capabilities amid ongoing sanctions and regional tensions. With just two weeks left in the resolution window, no verified defections, mass uprisings, or breakdowns in authority have emerged to alter this trajectory. Although unforeseen escalations, leadership fractures, or renewed domestic unrest could theoretically intervene, current conditions show the regime consolidating power and dictating terms in diplomatic channels.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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